...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... Following a front bringing rain across the panhandle Sunday, a developing low is expected to move into the SE gulf Monday into Tuesday. This system is still expected to bring enhanced rainfall to the far southern panhandle, particularly Ketchikan and Metlakatla. Model spread for this feature has begun to decrease, with a less impactful solution becoming more likely. This would have the low be more progressive and the moisture plume stay further south before wrapping around to impact the eastern half of Clarence Strait late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While overall 24 hr rain amounts are now ranging from 0.75 for coastal communities on Prince of Wales Island to upwards of 1.5 inches for Ketchikan and Metlakatla, the heaviest rainfall and rates are expected along southerly facing mountains in eastern portions of the Ketchikan Gateway Borough and Annette Island. Fast responding rivers and lakes may reach bank full conditions but no flooding is expected at this time. While not as strong, winds in Clarence Strait and the SE gulf will still increase out of the S and SE with this feature to fresh to strong breeze (18 - 24 kt) Tuesday morning as it approaches the outer coast. Later in the week, Thursday & Friday, it is looking like a more impactful frontal system with an associated atmospheric river will move over the Panhandle, bringing heavier rainfall & some relatively gusty conditions to a more widespread area.
