Storms to bring severe weather, flooding threat from Texas to Louisiana and Arkansas
A storm shifting into the Plains will bring the risk of damaging thunderstorms, flash flooding and travel disruptions into the final weekend of October.
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather’s flood expert, joined AccuWeather Early to provide insights on areas in the central U.S. that face an elevated risk of flooding this weekend due to heavy rainfall.
A storm that brought rounds of heavy showers and gusty thunderstorms to the interior Southwest through midweek has reached the southern portion of the Plains states, increasing the risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The storm will encounter warm, moist air being drawn northward from the Gulf, fueling intense thunderstorm development.
The severe weather threat drifted eastward Friday night from West Texas to central Oklahoma and northeast Texas. There were a handful of tornado reports from the Texas Panhandle to north-central Texas and a smattering of hail and damaging wind reports across the state as a line of thunderstorms pushed through. Even major metros like Fort Worth, Texas, observed intense storms with damaging winds.
Through Saturday night, the severe weather risk will extend from eastern Texas to Louisiana and portions of far southwestern Mississippi.
As with Friday, there will be a zone where a greater concentration of severe weather may occur. This moderate risk of severe weather, as described by AccuWeather, will extend from Houston to Lafayette, Louisiana, to south of Shreveport, Louisiana. Along with the likelihood of some storms with high winds, there may be a few tornadoes.
Flash flood risk to increase farther east
As the storm progresses slowly through the Ozark Mountains, heavy rainfall will become a more widespread danger. Rainfall totals could reach 4-8 inches in pockets from eastern Oklahoma to far northeastern Louisiana, raising the risk for flash flooding in urban areas and along small streams.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ total rainfall for this multiple-day event is 10 inches.
Since much of the rain will fall on a zone where the ground is dry due to months of drought, the rain will generally be absorbed by the landscape and may be of benefit. Because of low levels on tributary rivers, any boost to low water levels on the Mississippi River may be slight and of short duration.
Much of the rain may fall on the Red River basin. The lowest Mississippi levels, relative to the historical average, are centered on the middle part of the river system and not farther south near the delta, where the Red River joins at the Atchafalaya flood control area.
Motorists are urged to exercise extra caution along Interstates 30, 35, 40 and 44 in the region. Due to steep terrain in some areas, flash flooding poses a significant risk to campers in the Ozark Mountains. Several inches of rain in a short period may cause sudden and dangerous rises in water levels in the Ozarks and also at the underpasses in urban areas.
As the weekend progresses, some downpours will extend farther to the east along the Interstate 10 and 20 corridors in the Gulf Coast states, but the risk for flash flooding is expected to decrease and become more localized by late weekend in the Mississippi Delta region and the central Gulf Coast.
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a strengthening Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean. While Melissa is not expected to impact the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas, some indirect tropical impacts could still reach the U.S. Atlantic Coast later this month. There is the risk of significant direct impacts in South Florida.
Melissa will continue to bring life-threatening impacts, including catastrophic flooding, storm surge and destructive winds, to parts of the Caribbean before any approach to the U.S. next week.
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