Drenching storm to threaten Southeast coastal hazards
By
Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Nov 4, 2021 2:01 PM EDT
|
Updated Nov 6, 2021 5:42 AM EDT
A storm that already has a history of producing flooding rainfall across the southern Plains and Florida is now expected to set its sights along the Southeast coast next. Parts of the Sunshine State faced soaking downpours and severe wind gusts on Friday, during what is typically the driest month of the year, and the Southeast may endure additional coastal hazards as high tides elevate the flooding threat.
The storm unloaded heavy rainfall across much of Texas on Wednesday where a general 0.50-1.50 inches of rain fell from Fort Worth on south in the Lone Star State. Some areas even picked up nearly 3 inches just north and west of Brownsville, Texas, causing localized flooding.
On Friday, cold air poured across the Southeast ahead of the advancing storm, and as it pressed southward, this chilled air collided with a warm and humid air mass situated over the Florida Peninsula. The collision allowed a front to set up along the Gulf and Atlantic coastline that served as the path for the drenching storm.
As the storm came together over the Gulf of Mexico, rain and thunderstorms reached the Florida Peninsula by Friday morning. By later Friday morning, heavy rain and torrential downpours had spread across much of the Sunshine State.
According to local observations, by 10 A.M. Friday morning, Fort Myers, Florida, had already received rainfall amounts of nearly 2 inches. Sanibel, Florida, reported a whopping 3.05 inches that fell in a 6-hour period ending at 5 A.M. Friday morning. By 10 A.M. Friday morning total rainfall from the storm in Sanibel had reached 4.49 inches.
Thunderstorms brought the threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes to the Florida peninsula through Friday evening. Forecasters warned that the damaging winds could reach up to the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph during this period.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
In Aberdeen, Florida, a severe wind gust report of 60 mph was submitted to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as a result of the storms that rolled through southern Florida on Friday.
"As this moist air clashes with a stalled front over the Southeast, the result will be a period of heavy rainfall, especially from central Florida to northeastern Florida, including Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, Friday through Friday night where pockets of urban and flash flooding will impact residents in the region," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson explained.
By Friday evening, locations such as Daytona Beach Shores, Florida, had reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 9.27 inches. Storms continued to bring rainfall to portions of Florida through the overnight hours on Friday.
It was anticipated that outdoor events could be delayed or postponed due to the downpours and threat of lightning. Heavy rain can also slow travel on roadways by reducing visibility and increasing the risk of hydroplaning at high speeds. Those looking to begin their weekend at the beach may get chased back inside by the rain and storms, warned AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.
Friday morning, the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Miami, Florida, issued severe thunderstorm warnings across 4 counties in southern Florida. Additionally, a special marine warning was put in place by the NWS Friday morning warning residents of the risk of waterspouts within strong thunderstorms on Friday as winds picked up across the region.
A general 2-4 inches of rainfall was anticipated with localized amounts near the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches. Meteorologists warned that flooding on roadways in heavy downpours was likely and could lead to travel delays.
"November is the driest month of the year in a large part of Florida, and rainfall amounts from this storm could reach, and even double, average monthly November levels," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
In Daytona Beach, Florida, the normal amount of November rainfall totals at 2.76 inches. With only 5 days of rainfall reported so far this November, the city had already reached roughly 196% of their monthly precipitation. This value is expected to grow further as droplets were still falling as of early Saturday morning.
The wet pattern will continue it's path farther east through Saturday, bringing rounds of rainfall to northern Florida and the Carolina coastlines.
As the potent storm continues to pivot from northern Florida to the Southeast coast through Saturday, some coastal areas can experience gusty northeast winds that will whip up rough surf and the threat of strong rip currents. These coastal impacts will primarily target the east-facing coasts from Florida to the Outer Banks in North Carolina. The wind direction will be directed offshore for coastal areas along the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the entirety of the event, lessening any impacts.
Another factor will come into play, especially in the Carolina's, which could lead to significant coastal flooding. Higher-than-normal tides known as king tides are expected at the end of this week along the Southeast coast. The very high astronomical tides, which on their own usually cause minor coastal flooding, along with the onshore flow and rough surf from the storm could produce significant coastal flooding.
"Places like Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, could have flooded marinas as well as streets and buildings right along the coast," Anderson said.
As heavy rain also reaches the Carolina coasts, flooding could be exacerbated, especially at high tide, as rainwater isn't able to run off into the ocean effectively. A general 1-3 inches of rain is expected to fall along and near the Georgia and Carolina coastlines this weekend, with isolated higher amounts possible along the immediate coast. A round of soaking rain may also reach as far inland as the Appalachians late Saturday into early Sunday as the storm takes a track closer to the coast. Rain will exit east of the Outer Banks late Sunday.
AccuWeather tropical forecasters say the storm may have another trick up its sleeves.
"There is a small chance this evolving storm system could acquire some tropical characteristics Sunday or Monday of next week as it moves over relatively warm water and becomes detached from the frontal boundary," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. "If this were to happen, it could be classified as a subtropical storm for a brief period of time."
If the system becomes organized enough to be named a subtropical storm, which has both tropical and non-tropical features, it will be given the name Adria by the National Hurricane Center. That is the first name on a supplemental list created by the World Meteorological Organization last spring as a replacement for the Greek alphabet, which meteorologists previously used to name tropical storms once the designated list of names was exhausted.
Wanda, which developed over the weekend and continues to meander around the Atlantic on Saturday, was the last name on the original Atlantic name list for 2021.
The expected impacts are not expected to change should Adria be named.
Eventually, the storm will track north toward Atlantic Canada and become a very strong nor'easter, and it could unleash coastal impacts and rainfall in Labrador.
While this storm affects coastal portions of the Southeast, the majority of inland regions will hardly even be able to tell that there's a storm nearby. A large area of high pressure across the rest of the region will lead to a chilly but otherwise dry and rather sunny end to the week. Most of the Southeast will top out with highs in the 50s and 60s F on Saturday.
By Sunday, the coastal storm will have moved out of the region, and the Southeast will start to experience moderating temperatures, which will last into next week.
High pressure will move into the region once again and dry out much of the Florida Peninsula where residents can have the opportunity to clean up any storm damage that ensues.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.
Report a Typo
News / Severe Weather
Drenching storm to threaten Southeast coastal hazards
By Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Nov 4, 2021 2:01 PM EDT | Updated Nov 6, 2021 5:42 AM EDT
A storm that already has a history of producing flooding rainfall across the southern Plains and Florida is now expected to set its sights along the Southeast coast next. Parts of the Sunshine State faced soaking downpours and severe wind gusts on Friday, during what is typically the driest month of the year, and the Southeast may endure additional coastal hazards as high tides elevate the flooding threat.
The storm unloaded heavy rainfall across much of Texas on Wednesday where a general 0.50-1.50 inches of rain fell from Fort Worth on south in the Lone Star State. Some areas even picked up nearly 3 inches just north and west of Brownsville, Texas, causing localized flooding.
On Friday, cold air poured across the Southeast ahead of the advancing storm, and as it pressed southward, this chilled air collided with a warm and humid air mass situated over the Florida Peninsula. The collision allowed a front to set up along the Gulf and Atlantic coastline that served as the path for the drenching storm.
As the storm came together over the Gulf of Mexico, rain and thunderstorms reached the Florida Peninsula by Friday morning. By later Friday morning, heavy rain and torrential downpours had spread across much of the Sunshine State.
According to local observations, by 10 A.M. Friday morning, Fort Myers, Florida, had already received rainfall amounts of nearly 2 inches. Sanibel, Florida, reported a whopping 3.05 inches that fell in a 6-hour period ending at 5 A.M. Friday morning. By 10 A.M. Friday morning total rainfall from the storm in Sanibel had reached 4.49 inches.
Thunderstorms brought the threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes to the Florida peninsula through Friday evening. Forecasters warned that the damaging winds could reach up to the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph during this period.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
In Aberdeen, Florida, a severe wind gust report of 60 mph was submitted to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) as a result of the storms that rolled through southern Florida on Friday.
"As this moist air clashes with a stalled front over the Southeast, the result will be a period of heavy rainfall, especially from central Florida to northeastern Florida, including Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville, Friday through Friday night where pockets of urban and flash flooding will impact residents in the region," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson explained.
By Friday evening, locations such as Daytona Beach Shores, Florida, had reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 9.27 inches. Storms continued to bring rainfall to portions of Florida through the overnight hours on Friday.
It was anticipated that outdoor events could be delayed or postponed due to the downpours and threat of lightning. Heavy rain can also slow travel on roadways by reducing visibility and increasing the risk of hydroplaning at high speeds. Those looking to begin their weekend at the beach may get chased back inside by the rain and storms, warned AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.
Friday morning, the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Miami, Florida, issued severe thunderstorm warnings across 4 counties in southern Florida. Additionally, a special marine warning was put in place by the NWS Friday morning warning residents of the risk of waterspouts within strong thunderstorms on Friday as winds picked up across the region.
A general 2-4 inches of rainfall was anticipated with localized amounts near the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches. Meteorologists warned that flooding on roadways in heavy downpours was likely and could lead to travel delays.
"November is the driest month of the year in a large part of Florida, and rainfall amounts from this storm could reach, and even double, average monthly November levels," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
In Daytona Beach, Florida, the normal amount of November rainfall totals at 2.76 inches. With only 5 days of rainfall reported so far this November, the city had already reached roughly 196% of their monthly precipitation. This value is expected to grow further as droplets were still falling as of early Saturday morning.
The wet pattern will continue it's path farther east through Saturday, bringing rounds of rainfall to northern Florida and the Carolina coastlines.
As the potent storm continues to pivot from northern Florida to the Southeast coast through Saturday, some coastal areas can experience gusty northeast winds that will whip up rough surf and the threat of strong rip currents. These coastal impacts will primarily target the east-facing coasts from Florida to the Outer Banks in North Carolina. The wind direction will be directed offshore for coastal areas along the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the entirety of the event, lessening any impacts.
Another factor will come into play, especially in the Carolina's, which could lead to significant coastal flooding. Higher-than-normal tides known as king tides are expected at the end of this week along the Southeast coast. The very high astronomical tides, which on their own usually cause minor coastal flooding, along with the onshore flow and rough surf from the storm could produce significant coastal flooding.
"Places like Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, could have flooded marinas as well as streets and buildings right along the coast," Anderson said.
As heavy rain also reaches the Carolina coasts, flooding could be exacerbated, especially at high tide, as rainwater isn't able to run off into the ocean effectively. A general 1-3 inches of rain is expected to fall along and near the Georgia and Carolina coastlines this weekend, with isolated higher amounts possible along the immediate coast. A round of soaking rain may also reach as far inland as the Appalachians late Saturday into early Sunday as the storm takes a track closer to the coast. Rain will exit east of the Outer Banks late Sunday.
AccuWeather tropical forecasters say the storm may have another trick up its sleeves.
"There is a small chance this evolving storm system could acquire some tropical characteristics Sunday or Monday of next week as it moves over relatively warm water and becomes detached from the frontal boundary," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. "If this were to happen, it could be classified as a subtropical storm for a brief period of time."
If the system becomes organized enough to be named a subtropical storm, which has both tropical and non-tropical features, it will be given the name Adria by the National Hurricane Center. That is the first name on a supplemental list created by the World Meteorological Organization last spring as a replacement for the Greek alphabet, which meteorologists previously used to name tropical storms once the designated list of names was exhausted.
Wanda, which developed over the weekend and continues to meander around the Atlantic on Saturday, was the last name on the original Atlantic name list for 2021.
The expected impacts are not expected to change should Adria be named.
Eventually, the storm will track north toward Atlantic Canada and become a very strong nor'easter, and it could unleash coastal impacts and rainfall in Labrador.
While this storm affects coastal portions of the Southeast, the majority of inland regions will hardly even be able to tell that there's a storm nearby. A large area of high pressure across the rest of the region will lead to a chilly but otherwise dry and rather sunny end to the week. Most of the Southeast will top out with highs in the 50s and 60s F on Saturday.
By Sunday, the coastal storm will have moved out of the region, and the Southeast will start to experience moderating temperatures, which will last into next week.
High pressure will move into the region once again and dry out much of the Florida Peninsula where residents can have the opportunity to clean up any storm damage that ensues.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.
Report a Typo