Severe weather to return to central US, as drought relief and flood potential expand
Storms packing high winds, large hail and tornadoes are threatening the central United States this week. Where the storms repeat, the likelihood of flooding will increase and expand.
It’s already been a historic season in the Midwest, and just days after a tornado outbreak in Illinois, more storms are set to sweep through the region, as AccuWeather’s Geoff Cornish explains.
After a brief break last week, severe thunderstorms will return to the Plains and Midwest this weekend and continue through this week, bringing widespread risks ranging from damaging winds and hail to flooding on already saturated ground and swollen waterways.
Much of the Plains and Midwest got a break from severe weather following an outbreak that brought nearly 300 incidents on Wednesday, with high wind gusts making up the majority. There were three dozen reports of tornadoes, and that number may continue to climb as the investigation proceeds.
Severe storms, mostly with damaging wind gusts, shifted farther to the east and south on Thursday.
Storms to hammer areas from the Plains to the Ohio Valley
As the weekend progresses, the parent storm from the Rockies will continue moving east, and the zone of thunderstorms and severe weather will also expand farther to the east.
On Sunday, the likelihood of severe thunderstorms will extend from eastern Colorado to southern Indiana and Kentucky, cutting through the middle portion of the Mississippi Valley and affecting much of the Ohio Valley.
The storms will bring the risk of damaging straight-line wind gusts and tornadoes. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 85 mph.
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Severe thunderstorms will return to parts of the Plains on Monday. However, the zone in the Ohio Valley from Sunday will expand south and eastward into the mid-Atlantic, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts and flash flooding to places like Washington, D.C. There can even be an isolated tornado across portions of Maryland and Virginia.
On Tuesday, severe thunderstorms will break out across parts of the Plains from eastern Colorado through southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. The strongest storms will bring hail, flooding downpours and damaging wind gusts.
Drought relief and flooding threat to expand
While significant drought persists in parts of the central United States, rounds of storms in recent weeks have not only chipped away at the extent of the dryness but also reversed the situation, with both small-stream and river flooding occurring in parts of the Central states.
Minor to moderate flooding has been occurring along the Illinois and Wabash rivers, with elevated water levels on the Mississippi River.
Additional downpours from the storm system moving through will not only aggravate that problem, but may also cause areas of stream and secondary river flooding to expand into new locations from the Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
A general 1-4 inches of rain will fall through early week, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches. The zone of torrential downpours, including some pockets of severe thunderstorms, is forecast to shift south and east from Monday into Tuesday.
Areas from the Ozark Mountains in Arkansas to the southern Appalachians in Georgia, North Carolina, western Virginia and West Virginia will experience thundery downpours that could lead to flash flooding. Where the ground quickly becomes saturated or is still damp from prior storms, larger streams and some secondary rivers will be on the rise.
Downpours will also extend into the Northeast, bringing beneficial rain to drought-affected areas but also the potential for urban and highly localized flooding on some small streams.
Rounds of heavy rain and flooding will also occur from parts of Texas to northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas this week as weak areas of low pressure move east in the wake of Tropical Storm Arthur. Some locations picked up 1-2 feet of rain and experienced tremendous flash flooding from the tropical storm with low wind intensity.
Flooding in Kenner, Louisiana, on Thursday, June 18, 2026, after significant rainfall from Tropical Rainstorm Arthur.
There was a report of 31.56 inches of rain in Cottonport, Louisiana, with most of it falling within 24 hours. Rainfall records may have been set in multiple Gulf Coast states.
AccuWeather always maintained that the main threat to lives and property from Arthur would be from excessive rain and flash flooding.
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