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Rounds of flooding rainfall to target south-central US into midweek

By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published May 24, 2020 10:04 AM EDT

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The threat for flooding will escalate across the south-central United States this week as rounds of heavy rain and storms batter the region.

Many cities across the South Central states have already recorded more than their average amount of rainfall for the entire month of May.

Less than two weeks ago, several locations, including Dallas and New Orleans, received nearly a month's worth of rain over the course of two to three days.

This week, some of the same locations may be able to repeat that feat and others may join in as another heavy rain event sets up over the region.

"The rainy pattern will come courtesy of a system high in the atmosphere that will become cut off from the main flow of the jet stream," AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson said. "When this happens, unsettled weather can linger for several days in the same general location."

Rounds of rain are expected to impact eastern Texas and Oklahoma through the lower and middle Mississippi Valley through midweek.

"While it will not rain constantly this week, rain can fall at almost any time in the region," Adamson said.

Rain will be heavy at times through midweek and will likely produce flash flooding issues at times across the area.

"The stalled storm will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which will add to the intensity of rainfall rates across the region and increase the potential for flash flooding," AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said.

Over the course of the week, a major concern will be the development of training thunderstorms.

"Training thunderstorms are storms that repeat over the same areas and maximize the likelihood of flooding," Duff said.

Locations caught under these repeating downpours will have the greatest opportunity to approach an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches of rainfall.

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Last week, a separate storm system tracked slowly across the Midwest, down through the Appalachians and finally exited off to the Atlantic Ocean. This storm unleashed periods of very heavy rainfall that led to dam failures in Michigan, among numerous reports of other flash flooding issues.

Rainfall along that same scale is likely at times over the South Central states this week, leading to widespread flash flooding issues, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

"Motorists are reminded to never attempt to drive through floodwaters, as the water is likely deeper than it appears and the roadway underneath could be compromised," Duff said.

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Although many areas will end the week completely drenched, some parched locations along the Gulf of Mexico will likely receive beneficial rain and be able to quench some drought concerns.

According to the United States Drought Monitor, areas in Texas, along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville to Rockport are facing moderate to severe drought conditions, as are portions of the Louisiana coast.

From Jan. 1 to May 24, Brownsville, Texas, had only recorded 2.63 inches of rainfall, just 37% of their typical year-to-date precipitation. This week's heavy rain event will likely be a positive step toward helping to make up that deficit.

This flood threat in the central U.S. will come at the same time as portions of the Southeast states are being doused by what could become the next organized tropical system.

"With two different systems in play to watch, much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. will have to monitor the potential for flooding during the week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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AccuWeather Severe Weather Rounds of flooding rainfall to target south-central US into midweek
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