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Rain to ease but historic flooding to continue for Texas, Louisiana

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated May 25, 2021 9:25 AM EDT

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AccuWeather's Kim Leoffler took a look back at the flooding that occurred in Louisiana the week of May 17.

After a week of seemingly relentless heavy rainfall, with a brief tropical storm threat mixed in as well, residents of flood-weary parts of Louisiana and Texas will finally get a break from the widespread heavy rain in the coming days. However, forecasters warn that the impacts of the heavy rain won't be so quick to end.

A historic deluge of rain last week unleashed serious flooding across portions of Texas and Louisiana, leaving roads underwater and leading to high water rescues.

While forecasters say the worst of the widespread heavy rain is over, not everyone is completely out of the woods yet with regard to heavy downpours. Heavy rain has shifted westward out of Louisiana and parts of far-eastern Texas, but the threat of locally heavy downpours will persist early this week along parts of the Texas Gulf coast into central and eastern Texas.

Lake Charles, Louisiana, recorded over 12 inches in one day on May 17 and over 20 inches total so far in the month of May, adding to the string of extreme events that have affected the city in the past year.

The entire state of Louisiana has also been hit hard with heavy rain this spring. While New Orleans missed out on the worst of the heavy rain last week, the city has still logged over 25 inches of rain since April 1, which is 321% of normal for that time period.

With the heavy rain over the last week aimed more at western Louisiana into Texas, at least five people were killed amid the flooding, according to Louisiana Department of Health.

The weather weary state will finally get a several day stretch of mainly dry weather with only a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm on a couple of days over the upcoming week.

Meanwhile, farther down the coast, places like Victoria, Texas, could still pick up a few more inches of rainfall on Tuesday from occasional downpours. Victoria recorded over a foot of rain last week. This has pushed May 2021 into the record books for the city, making it the wettest May on record for Victoria.

While heavy downpours are not expected to be as widespread or persistent in parts of Texas early in the week, any additional rainfall can exacerbate ongoing flooding.

"With wet, antecedent conditions from so much rain recently, it won't take much for flash flooding and more ponding of water to develop in these areas," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins.

More flooding of roadways, especially those near waterways, is expected to continue. Forecasters and officials urge motorists to avoid driving through flooded roadways and follow the guidance of "turn around, don't drown." The additional rain will also continue to push up water levels of rivers and streams.

Many rivers across the region remain above flood stage, with some in moderate flood stage.

Moderate flooding is defined by the National Weather Service as having some inundation of structures and roads near the stream or river and some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations may be necessary.

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"The weather pattern over the next several days will not feature much precipitation across Louisiana, but periodic showers and thunderstorms, some possibly heavy, are likely to be had to the north and west. This may prolong the flooding situation in areas downstream from where the rain falls," Adkins said.

"There is some variation from place to place, but generally speaking most rivers and major tributaries across Louisiana and the coastal plain of Texas are approaching peak water levels now or will do so in the next few days," Adkins said.

The relatively flat terrain of the region will make for a slow recession of flood waters as flooded fields and and standing water in neighborhoods finally drains away.

"Larger rivers will take the longest to recede, particularly those closer to the Gulf of Mexico that have to integrate the excess water draining into numerous upstream tributaries."

The Sabine and Naches rivers in far-eastern Texas are forecast to remain at flood stage through at least late this week. Many other rivers in the region could take until late this week or longer to finally recede below flood stage.

Additional issues can arise for communities that have to wait a while for water to recede. In Port Arthur, Texas, KFDM reports that an outbreak of mosquitos in the coming days is a concern in the town. The extra standing water provides ample breeding ground for the pests which can carry diseases along with being a general nuisance.

Related:

How to stay safe during a flash flood
It’s been 10 years since the deadly Joplin tornado
Ana becomes first-named system of 2021 in Atlantic

Standing or slow-moving water itself can harbor bacteria and parasites that flourish in the warm and humid conditions. Mold, some of which can be very dangerous to health, may grow quickly in homes and structures that have been flooded.

As clean-up efforts continue, one point of good news is that heat will be relatively suppressed. High temperatures into the first part of this week will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s, which is around 5-10 degrees below normal for most of the area. Still, with high humidity, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures can still climb into the 90s at times and residents should be careful to avoid heat-related illnesses.

As high pressure and dry weather continue to expand later this week, heat will return again with temperatures returning closer to normal in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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