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Heavy rain, severe weather threat looms for northern Plains

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Aug 20, 2021 11:19 AM EDT

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AccuWeather's Tony Laubach was live in Colorado on Aug. 19 as tornado-warned storms fired up across the area, dumping large amounts of hail in some places.

A potent storm bringing gusty, fire-stoking winds to Utah, Wyoming and Colorado along with soaking rain, a fall-like chill and even some high-country snow to the northern Rockies will push widespread rain and thunderstorms into the northern Plains to end the week. As this storm shifts across the central United States, some residents will receive beneficial rainfall. However, some of the storms could turn severe and unleash potentially damaging conditions. 

Much of the northern Plains, from eastern Montana across the Dakotas into Minnesota, is in the throes of severe drought or worse, according to the US Drought Monitor. AccuWeather forecasters say this next storm may help to put a big dent in that drought.

“From northern Wyoming and eastern Montana, across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska and into Minnesota and Iowa, locations are likely to receive 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain through Friday night," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo. "While this won't eliminate the drought, it will be a big step in the right direction and alleviate some of the dryness." 

AccuWeather forecasters say rainfall totals could reach 2 to 3 inches in places where the heaviest precipitation comes down, which is most likely to be across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska.

"From an agricultural perspective, this rain is coming a bit too late to benefit most of the corn crop at this point," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "However, soybean fields will welcome the beneficial rain."

The rain will also help, at least temporarily, clear out some of the smoke and haze that has persistently plagued the skies in the region recently. However, with fires still raging across much of the West, it may only be a matter of time before smoky skies return following the storm.

Precipitation will no doubt be welcome as it helps to begin easing drought conditions and clear out some of the smoke in the skies, but that rainfall may come with the risk of stormy weather in some communities. "Severe thunderstorms are also forecast to break out in the region as this potent storm moves through," LoBiondo said.

Quarter-size hail pelted areas of Colorado to Nebraska on Thursday, though the largest measured up to 2 inches in diameter, according to storm reports from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. The ping-pong-sized hail fell in Jefferson County, Colorado, around 2:25 p.m. MDT. Later in the afternoon, a possible tornado was reported in Phillips County, Colorado, which is in the northeastern corner of the state.

In addition, some of the storms contained strong winds.

Conditions into Friday morning can spawn the risk of severe thunderstorms, but the more significant threat of severe weather will arise late on Friday. 

On Friday, tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, large hail and flash flooding could all occur across a large swath of the Plains from parts of far northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri through the eastern Dakotas, along with much of Minnesota and Iowa. The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms to reach as far south as Wichita, Kansas, remains a possibility Friday night.

Places that could get dangerous weather include metro areas around Minneapolis; Des Moines, Iowa; Omaha, Nebraska; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; and Fargo, North Dakota.

Those with outdoor plans to kick off the weekend or those attending sporting events in the region will want to be prepared for the threat of severe weather. The weather system could also prove disruptive for college students who may be traveling or planning to move back to campus on Friday in preparation for the new semester.

Farmers throughout the region will also want to stay weather aware as crops are nearly ready to be harvested at this time of summer.

"With corn now reaching maturity across much of the region, cornfields could be more susceptible to damaging winds," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "The tall stalks weighed down with ears of corn can be blown over by thunderstorm winds much more easily."

Last week, AccuWeather covered the one-year anniversary of the 2020 Midwest derecho, which hit particularly hard in Iowa and caused billions of dollars in damage, including the destruction of hundreds of millions of bushels of corn as well as millions of bushels of stored grain.

At this time, AccuWeather forecasters aren't expecting an event of that magnitude on Friday, but after a year when farmers have already sustained significant crop damage, any additional losses from storms this year could strain farmers even further.

Following the storm, a refreshing mass of cooler and less humid air, accompanied by plenty of sunshine and breezy conditions, will sweep across the northern Plains for the weekend.

SEE ALSO:

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Winter Weather Photographer captures the most detailed images of snowflakes ever

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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