Flooding rain, isolated tornadoes to threaten southern US this weekend
A month's worth of rain may fall on portions of the Gulf Coast states this weekend as downpours erupt and repeat along with the risk of locally intense thunderstorms.
A powerful tornado touched down in Fryburg, Ohio, as a deadly severe storm system made its way through the region on March 14.
Part of the same storm responsible for large hail and tornadoes over the Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio valleys into Thursday night has settled over the southern United States, where it will linger through the weekend. Repeating downpours may trigger flooding and some of the more robust storms may lead to severe weather, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
A cold front associated with the storm maintained enough speed to keep thunderstorms moving along Friday night. The storms led to incidents of flash flooding and strong wind gusts, as well as isolated tornadoes, from central Texas to South Carolina.
South of this region, near Interstate 10 from Texas to northern Florida and southwestern Georgia, a greater number of the storms may repeat through the rest of the weekend as the front stalls in a west-to-east fashion. As the downpours persist, the potential for urban, small-stream and low-lying area flooding will increase.
Rain from prior weeks has many secondary rivers surging. These include the Pearl, Alabama, Oconee, Savannah and Congaree rivers. At the very least, the rain through this weekend will tend to keep many rivers at minor to moderate flood stage.
From eastern Louisiana to southern Georgia, rainfall since the start of 2024 has been 1.5 times that of the historical average in many cases, but the rain has surged to double the historical average since the start of March. For example, New Orleans International Airport received 17.64 inches of rain from Jan. 1 through March 16, or 150% of the average. Since March 1, close to 5.40 inches of rain has fallen, which is 235% of average for the two-week period. The result is saturated ground that will cause much of the additional rain through the weekend to run off.
One area that will receive beneficial rain through the rest of this weekend is central and southeastern Texas. Conditions in this part of the Lone Star State range from sufficiently moist to abnormally dry and extreme drought, according to the latest United States Drought Monitor report.
At the expense of outdoor and travel plans, rain in parts of Texas may be welcomed. However, the rainfall may be so extreme as to lead to incidents of flash flooding. The darkness of night can add to the flash flood danger.
The Houston metro area will make up for limited rainfall since early February. As of March 16, only 0.38 of an inch of rain has fallen since Feb. 4. at Intercontinental Airport, compared to a historical average of 4.61 inches. Enough rain may fall on Sunday to lead to urban flooding in the Houston area.
Along with the likelihood of torrential, repeating downpours near the Gulf coast this weekend will be the risk of heavy to locally severe thunderstorms. It is possible that the storms will produce isolated tornadoes and waterspouts.
The severe weather risk on Sunday will expand from Texas to the Florida Panhandle, although much of central and southern Florida will avoid rain with plenty of sunshine and warmth on both days of this weekend.
Pipeline of storms to bring rounds of flooding, severe weather in southern US in 2nd half of March
Looking through the end of the month, portions of the Southern states are likely to remain a periodic hot spot for stormy conditions, AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
After this weekend, "the next storm to affect the Gulf Coast region will come along next Thursday to Friday, spreading rain and thunderstorms from Texas and Oklahoma eastward to Georgia and the Carolinas in time," Lundberg said. "Another storm will follow from March 24-26 and perhaps another a couple days later."
Each storm system in the pipeline will increase the risk of flash flooding and possible river flooding as the ground remains moist to saturated. Streams may have less time to recede after each storm.
"The storm slated for March 24-26 is of the most concern as it is likely to have a great deal of moisture to work with, so both flooding and perhaps a significant severe weather outbreak may unfold from near the Gulf coast to the Tennessee Valley and perhaps the Ohio Valley," Lundberg said.
Portions of the I-10 corridor and perhaps areas farther to the north could pick up close to a foot of rain during the second half of March.
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