AccuWeather forecast: July 3 severe storm threat to focus on I-85, I-95
A storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Midwest and Northeast through Independence Day.
Following an active evening for severe weather from Tennessee to New Jersey, more dangerous and potentially damaging thunderstorms will fire up from Vermont and New Hampshire, southward to the Carolinas and westward to Mississippi on Monday, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
There have been over 1000 incidents of damaging winds alone from severe weather spanning Thursday through Sunday according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As more days of severe weather get underway, this number will only continue to grow.
A small number of tornadoes have also been reported as well. This has been especially true in Pennsylvania, where 3 tornadoes have been confirmed in northeastern portions of the state. One of these was near Scranton, and uprooted several trees while causing damage to nearby homes.
Otherwise, the highest concentration of severe weather was found west of the Appalachians. From Indiana and Kentucky into Alabama and Georgia, damaging winds were common in the storms that developed.
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The threat for severe storms along the East Coast will continue into Monday night and repeat on Independence Day. Storms may turn intense across a wide swath of the region, extending from western Massachusetts into Mississippi and Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours. Cities such as Raleigh, Richmond and Baltimore will be at the highest risk for these storms, which can contain hail, damaging winds or even an isolated tornado.
The greatest threat for those outdoors, as with any thunderstorm, is from a lightning strike. With large numbers of people spending time outdoors due to the Independence Day holiday, forecasters urge people to move indoors at the first rumble of thunder. Tents, golf carts and picnic pavilions do not offer adequate protection from lightning.
In addition to the likelihood of sudden, frequent lightning strikes, some of the storms will produce wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph, AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
"At this strength, large tree limbs can break and poorly rooted trees can be toppled. Where trees interact with utility lines, local to regional power outages are possible," DaSilva stated," Severe storms, including a high-powered thunderstorm complex, in recent days knocked out power to more than 500,000 utility customers from the middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast states."
Forecasters have estimated the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust with the setup into Monday night to be near 85 mph. This means there is the potential for a gust to reach Category 1 hurricane force, which is 74 mph. At this force, roof and other property damage is possible. Some pre-manufactured homes and campers could suffer significant damage or possibly roll over.
Because of the great amount of moisture in the air, the towering clouds from the thunderstorms will unleash torrential downpours that suddenly drop visibility. In a matter of a few minutes, runoff can turn streets into raging torrents of water for several minutes, and water can collect in areas that drain poorly. Campers along small streams, especially over the southern Appalachians, should closely monitor heavy rain in the vicinity as runoff from a downpour far upstream can lead to a rapid rise in water levels at their site.
Part of the Chicago metro area was hit hard by torrential downpours and street flooding on Sunday. Up to 9 inches of rain fell on the Chicago area.
A few incidents of pea to marble-sized hail are possible with the strongest storms as well.
A sea breeze that develops along the coast may offer some protection from thunderstorms at most beaches during the midday and afternoon hours. However, there can be some exceptions. When a sea breeze is present and thunderstorms build inland, often the storms hold off until the evening or nighttime hours before reaching the beach. Sporadic morning showers may occur as the sea breeze develops and wanders a few miles inland.
Storms to focus on southern US, Mid-Atlantic on July 4th
Just enough dry air is forecast to push in from the Great Lakes and Canada to prevent thunderstorms from erupting over much of the central Appalachians on Independence Day. However, showers and locally heavy thunderstorms may be a problem for outdoor activities as far north as New England.
A broad ribbon of moisture, where heavy to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from around New York City to the lower Mississippi Valley. Storms in this zone will likely be drenching and locally gusty with the potential for sudden lightning strikes. Most of the storms will tend to occur during the afternoon and evening hours.
Severe weather to return to northern, central Plains
As cool air begins a new southward push from Canada, thunderstorms will erupt along the back edge of warm and humid conditions from through Tuesday over part of the North Central states.
Similar to storms in the eastern and southern U.S. into Tuesday, the greatest threats from the storms will be from sudden lightning strikes, high winds and downpours.
"Just as in the East and South, people spending time outdoors, such as camping and boating along the shores of Lakes Superior or visitors at Mount Rushmore National Park, South Dakota, should keep a weather eye out for rapidly changing and potentially dangerous weather conditions into Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz said.
Some of the strongest storms over the northern and central Plains may produce moderate hail to the size of marbles or golf balls.
Any severe thunderstorm in the Central and Eastern states has the potential to produce a brief tornado or waterspout through Independence Day.
Heading into midweek, storms may be present over an even larger region on Wednesday. While cities such as St. Louis and Chicago may be impacted by one cluster of storms, a separate round of storms may move through much of the High Plains.
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