Extreme fire risk in Southern California as powerful Santa Ana winds return

AccuWeather increases preliminary estimate of total damage and economic loss of $250 billion to $275 billion due to what has occurred and what is to come, considering the AccuWeather forecast and long-term impacts to people and the economy of the region.

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – Jan. 12, 2025 - AccuWeather expert meteorologists are warning families, businesses, emergency officials and fire crews throughout Southern California to prepare for another round of extreme fire risk as stronger Santa Ana winds return to the region on Monday. Due to the AccuWeather forecast, in addition to what has already occurred and expected long-term impacts on people’s health and the economy of the region, AccuWeather experts are increasing their preliminary estimate of total damage and economic loss of $250 billion to $275 billion.

“This will be another incredibly dangerous week near the fire zones and across much of the Los Angeles region as stronger wind gusts return. Please follow official evacuation orders,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. “We could face another round of hurricane-force wind gusts in some places this week. Powerful wind gusts could ground some firefighting aircrafts at times, which makes it more difficult for crews to contain wind-driven fires.”

AccuWeather is forecasting 60-80 mph wind gusts in areas prone to Santa Ana winds starting Monday through Wednesday morning, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mph.

With the threat of erratic fire behavior at times, people across Southern California are being urged to prepare for additional evacuation orders, as well of the likelihood of more public safety power shutoffs.

“Embers carried in the wind can quickly spread these fires in suburban areas from house to house,” DaSilva said. “People need to be packed up and ready to evacuate in a matter of moments.”

AccuWeather expert long-range meteorologists, led by Lead Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, predict there are minimal rain chances in the Los Angeles area through the end of January, followed by an increased chance of rain during the weeks of Feb. 10 and Feb. 17.

“There could be a shower or two January 18-19, but it is not expected to be meaningful to aid in reducing fire spread or risk. There is another chance of rain January 26-28, but that should also just be a few showers,” said Pastelok. “The best chance of rain over the next 6 weeks appears to be February 10-23. If appreciable rain doesn’t occur then, it may turn dry into much of March, further exacerbating the situation.”

Toxic threats in the wildfire smoke

AccuWeather expert meteorologists are encouraging people to limit their exposure to wildfire smoke and to wear N95 respirator masks when possible, as toxic and dangerous materials in cars, homes, plastics, chemicals and fuels continue to burn.

“The exposure to unhealthy and dangerous wildfire smoke is causing major impacts to physical and mental health for millions of people across the Los Angeles area,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

Poor and unhealthy air quality is expected in parts of the Los Angeles region through much of next week as wildfires continue to burn.

The financial toll of catastrophic fires

AccuWeather has increased its preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from the fast-moving, wind-driven infernos burning across Southern California from $250 billion to $275 billion due to factors such as increased loss of life, long-term financial impacts for cleanup, home values, rebuilding, health and medical impacts because of long-term and early exposure to wildfire smoke as well as significant impacts to infrastructure and business.

“AccuWeather experts, who have been recognized for their severe weather-related loss analyses for years, preliminarily estimate total damage and economic loss between $250 billion to $275 billion, which is as staggering as it is sobering due to one of the most destructive fires in modern U.S. history,” said Porter.  “Multi-million-dollar homes with priceless contents have already been lost in one of the world’s most expensive neighborhoods have contributed to this increase as well as the high costs to mitigate smoke damage and water damage due to fire suppression efforts. There will also certainly be a decrease in real estate values in some of the affected areas as a result of the fires. And perhaps even migration changes as large numbers of people leave California rather than choose to rebuild.”

AccuWeather’s increased estimate takes into account the damage and destruction of thousands of homes and businesses, damage to utilities and infrastructure, including contamination of water systems from debris, the financial impact of evacuation orders for more than 100,000 people, the long-term cost of rebuilding or relocation for people in densely populated areas whose homes were destroyed, anticipated cleanup and recovery costs, emergency shelter expenses, hospital evacuations, as well as immediate and long-term health care costs for people who were injured or exposed to unhealthy air quality from wildfire smoke and impacts on commerce, both locally and nationally.

“Others’ estimates of the total estimates of the total damage and economic loss from the current wildfires plaguing Southern California, such as JP Morgan and Moody’s at $50 billion and $8 billion, respectively, seem to be far too low and may have an incomplete picture of the devastating impacts or missing key parameters that AccuWeather has identified and is including within its estimates for total damage and economic loss,” Porter went on to say. “These other estimates don’t even seem to begin to cover the magnitude of the disaster experienced by people whose personal and professional lives may be impacted negatively in the coming years or even a decade.”

A panel of health experts are already concluding early exposure to wildfire smoke may cause illness beyond respiratory problems, such as cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, and mental illness, especially to vulnerable populations, including pregnant women, young people and the elderly.

“Additionally, no other source takes into account the loss of antiques, priceless heirlooms and irreplaceable items and papers,” said Porter.

Unfortunately, the disaster is still unfolding and these wind-driven infernos, powered by high winds, wind gusts, low humidity and an overgrowth of dried foliage acting as fuel, will have ripple effects and negative impacts that will be felt across the state and the nation for the coming months and years.

Fires Follow Destructive 2024 Hurricane Season

Jonathan Porter: “This catastrophic damage in California is happening in the wake an incredibly destructive and costly hurricane season in the United States. These back-to-back weather disasters will lead to even higher insurance rates, and likely, more policies being dropped in high-risk areas.”

“AccuWeather estimates that the total damage and economic loss from weather disasters in the United States over the past 12 months has reached $693 billion to $799 billion. We’re talking about a financial impact equivalent to almost 3 percent of our nation’s annual gross domestic product. $275 billion would represent almost 7% of the GDP of the state of California and about 1% of the GDP for the United States.”

“Extreme weather events are occurring more frequently, with more intense impacts, as a result of climate change. This is a serious problem that must be confronted.”

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