Tropical threat emerging from central Gulf to Florida waters
Warm Gulf and southwest Atlantic waters could support tropical development close to Florida in early June, while forecasters also track increasing activity in the eastern Pacific.
A plume of tropical moisture is headed from the Caribbean to the Southeast as June begins, but could that lead to a tropical storm? Let’s break down the forecast.
Conditions from Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to the waters surrounding Florida could become more favorable for tropical development in the coming days. Tropical activity in the eastern Pacific may precede the Atlantic basin by several days.
“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development.”
“The chance of development remains very low in the short term due to strong wind shear,” DaSilva added. “However, as the shear relaxes, conditions could become more favorable for an area of low pressure to develop in the Gulf or the western Caribbean.”
AccuWeather’s team of tropical meteorologists believes the highest chance for tropical development would occur during the middle to latter part of next week.
“Sea surface temperatures are running above average in these areas and are generally within a few degrees of 80 degrees, which is near the threshold typically needed for tropical development,” DaSilva said.
Should a storm form, where it develops would likely determine its track. A storm that forms over the central or eastern Gulf would be more likely to track northeastward. One that develops over the southwestern Gulf (the Bay of Campeche) could move westward into Mexico.
“Even if nothing develops, conditions through mid-June look wetter overall across Florida, which should help ease drought conditions,” DaSilva said.
Significant rainfall will be needed to substantially reduce or end the drought. However, if a tropical depression or tropical storm tracks close enough to Florida, several inches of rain could fall and lead to localized flooding.
GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
• Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
How rough seas become across the region will depend on the organization and strength of any storm. At the very least, locally heavy squalls, gusty winds and rapidly changing weather conditions could pose hazards for beachgoers and boaters from the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf to the southwestern Atlantic.
"It is possible that some or all of the energy helping to brew the potential storm on the Atlantic side is diverted to the Pacific side," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said. "Usually, development occurs on one side of Central America and Southern Mexico or the other. Rarely do both occur around the same time."
Tracking a tropical booster
AccuWeather meteorologists keep tabs on a large ripple that slowly travels from west to east around the globe near the equator. This feature and valuable forecast tool, discovered in 1971 by American meteorologists, is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO.
A portion of the MJO generates additional upward motion in the atmosphere, which can boost tropical development.
"The upward motion zone of the MJO is forecast to be in the eastern Pacific during the first seven to 10 days of June and then move on to the Caribbean, Gulf and southwest Atlantic centered on the second week to the middle of June," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather meteorologists use this oscillation and others to help with the forecast of tropical and non-tropical storms and moist patterns around the globe year-round.
This ultra-wide view of the Tropics was captured on Thursday morning, May 28, 2026, Eastern Time. The busy nature of showers, thunderstorms and tropical activity associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be seen in the far left, or the western Pacific. The Americas are on the right side of the image. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Tropical activity could ramp up in the eastern Pacific within days
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, AccuWeather meteorologists expect a few opportunities for tropical storms to form over the next seven to 10 days, helping to kick off the active eastern Pacific hurricane season.
One feature may develop 1,000 miles or so off the coast of Central America and Mexico in the time frame of June 3-6.
One or two features could also develop much closer to the coast of Central America between June 6-10. Steering winds could guide either storm toward the southwestern coast of Mexico.
While a strengthening El Niño is likely to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic later this summer and autumn, it is forecast to boost activity in the eastern Pacific. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm water across parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its impacts, including shifts in the jet stream, can influence weather patterns around the globe.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
