Southeastern US waters to remain tropical-trouble spot in early August
While nothing is imminent in the Atlantic as far as tropical activity is concerned in the wake of Bertha, waters surrounding the southeastern United States remain a zone to watch through mid-August.
Researchers fly the Gulfstream jet, called ‘Gonzo,’ above the hurricane to measure key metrics to improve forecasts.
AccuWeather meteorologists have a particular area in mind when looking for potential tropical activity in the Atlantic basin during the first part of August, and it remains close to the United States, just as it did for Bertha in mid-July.
A zone of waters surrounding Florida, the Carolinas, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda remains in the spotlight that has perhaps the best chance of cooking up a tropical depression or tropical rainstorm later in the first week through the second week of August. No tropical activity is anticipated through the first few days of August.
This area will have somewhat lower atmospheric pressure than other spots, so it may tend to foster thunderstorm activity on its own.
"There will be a couple of fronts that drop into this region and slowly decay," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Waters are sufficiently warm in this region to foster tropical activity, and it appears wind shear will be relatively low for a time compared to most prior weeks so far this summer."
The approximate critical temperature for tropical development is 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Wind shear occurs when winds blow from one direction or many different directions through multiple layers of the atmosphere. High wind shear can prevent tropical development or cause a developed tropical storm or hurricane to lose wind intensity.
One way for a tropical depression to develop in this area would be if a cluster of thunderstorms organizes into an area of low pressure and separates from the front in the region. Such a feature would then have an opportunity to develop spin with a uniformly warm core, instead of a non-tropical storm that relies on temperature contrasts on either side of a front.
Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"Because this zone under scrutiny is so close to land areas, given the conditions, it has to be monitored as there may be minimal notice if a tropical storm were to form," DaSilva said.
A rapidly developing tropical storm near the coast could bring sudden heavy rain, rapidly deteriorating beach conditions, coastal flooding and damaging winds.
Since multiple fronts are likely to stall and slowly dissolve across the Southeast states into August, repeated downpours will raise the risk of flash flooding while also providing some needed rain to drought areas.
What's ahead this season?
AccuWeather's team of meteorologists expects a below-average to average tropical storm and hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.
These lower-than-average numbers, relative to the historical average, are the result of an already potent El Niño, which tends to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic due to prolonged wind shear.
Meanwhile, on the Pacific side of Central America, an above-average to much above-average tropical storm and hurricane season is forecast, in part due to warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures associated with El Niño.
Recently, the first two hurricanes of the Pacific season formed — Fausto and Genevieve, which are named storms six and seven, respectively. The Atlantic has only had two tropical storms thus far (Arthur and Bertha), with no hurricanes yet. However, both tropical storms brought direct impacts to the U.S.
Much of June, July and the first half of August are typically rather quiet during hurricane season in the Atlantic. Historically, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes ramps up significantly during the second half of August through mid-September.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
