Atlantic hurricane update: How El Niño could reshape the rest of the season
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, but the strengthening El Niño will play a significant role in how many storms develop this year.
There’s now a more than 90% chance El Niño becomes a super El Niño by the end of hurricane season, which could help limit tropical activity late in the season, but a quieter season doesn’t mean a harmless one.
A strengthening El Niño will have a major influence on the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in early September.
AccuWeather now predicts 8 to 14 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher. The forecast also calls for 3 to 5 direct impacts on the United States, including Arthur and Bertha, both of which made landfall along the Gulf Coast this year.
The northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas as areas with a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts through the rest of the season, along with the northeastern Caribbean.
Although El Niño develops in the Pacific, it can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away, including an uptick in stronger winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean. These winds, known as wind shear, can inhibit tropical development or weaken a storm or hurricane that encounters the winds.
“The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater the likelihood of a less active end to the season,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
There is now over a 90% probability that it evolves into a "super El Niño" by the end of the Atlantic hurricane season. The timing means that El Niño could help shut down tropical activity earlier than a typical year.
One of the dangers this season is the exceptionally warm water near the United States. That warm water can allow storms to form or strengthen closer to land, giving coastal residents less time to prepare for impact.
Both Arthur and Bertha developed in this manner, spinning up close to land not long before direct impacts started to be felt along the coast.
Tropical Storm Arthur was the first storm of the season, developing in the western Gulf just hours before making landfall along the northeastern coast of Texas on June 17. The storm will be remembered for its record-breaking rain, particularly across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. In Cottonport, Louisiana, located in the south-central part of the state, an astonishing 31.56 inches of rain was measured. In Mississippi, entire communities were cut off due to floodwaters.
On June 20, Tropical Storm Bertha developed in the northeastern Gulf and strengthened as it tracked nearly parallel to the coastline before making landfall in Louisiana on June 22, followed by another landfall near the border of Louisiana and Texas on June 23.
Children near breaking waves on West End Pier on Lake Pontchartrain as Tropical Storm Bertha approaches the Louisiana Coast Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
"It will be especially important to closely monitor each tropical wave this season," DaSilva explained. "Some tropical waves may remain disorganized while crossing the Atlantic, only to develop and intensify once they reach the exceptionally warm waters near the United States such as in the western Caribbean or Gulf."
Other factors in the forecast
Meteorologists are also monitoring a phenomenon called Atlantic Niña, where waters in the eastern Atlantic Ocean are cooler than long-term averages. This can result in fewer storms in this region of the hurricane basin.
There are also concerns about the amount of tropical activity in an area known as the Main Development Region, which stretches from the Caribbean eastward across the typically busiest part of the hurricane basin.
"Over the last two years, the environment across the Main Development Region has been less favorable for thunderstorm development than the historical average. This has led to tropical waves struggling to develop after they move off the African coast," DaSilva explained. The Main Development Region has been very stable once again, which, if this persists, could limit the number of storms that form in this area.
The heart of the hurricane season is still ahead. Historically, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season forms around Aug. 11, and the first major hurricane forms around Sept. 1. The climatological peak of the season is on Sept. 10, with activity generally trending downward until the season ends on Nov. 30.
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