Medium risk of tropical development between Bahamas and Bermuda this week
A large mass of showers and thunderstorms has the potential to consolidate into the Atlantic's next tropical or sub-tropical storm later this week. Impacts would likely be limited to Bermuda or the high seas.
Bernie Rayno breaks down where tropical development could occur in the Atlantic basin.
As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses through its last official month, AccuWeather meteorologists have assigned a medium risk of tropical or subtropical development between the Bahamas and Bermuda.
"A broad area of low pressure situated a few miles above the sea surface has the potential to spin down into the lower atmosphere and gradually intensify into a tropical or subtropical depression into this weekend," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
This image of the southwestern Atlantic shows a broad area of showers and thunderstorms centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda on Tuesday morning, Nov. 3, 2026. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Direct impacts to the United States are not expected from this potential system.
"Strengthening winds from the west across the eastern U.S. are forecast to steer it away from the coast later this week into next week," DaSilva added.
The storm is forecast to hover close enough to Bermuda to bring at least spotty showers over multiple days this week. The setup is likely to keep most of the associated showers away from the Bahamas.
It is possible that, as the storm slowly organizes, the heaviest and gustiest showers may consolidate and shift south of Bermuda, based on the latest available information.
"Bermuda has not had a named storm bring direct impacts to the islands this season," DaSilva said.
If the system becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it would be named Kyle. At this time, nothing else appears to be worthy of a named tropical system over the next several days in the Atlantic basin.
2026 hurricane season numbers: El Niño largely to blame
Based on the historical average, there are typically 15 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes by Nov. 3 for the Atlantic.
As of early November, there have been only 10 tropical storms and one hurricane. Isaias was the only hurricane, which also managed to reach Category 3 (major) intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The main reason for the lower-than-average numbers this season is the strong and strengthening El Niño. During El Niño years, disruptive winds over much of the Atlantic basin tend to occur, limiting tropical storm formation and intensification.
Meanwhile, the Pacific has had a bumper crop of tropical storms and hurricanes this year with warm waters associated with El Niño playing a big role.
As of Nov. 3, there have been 24 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and 11 major hurricanes.
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