Severe thunderstorms to threaten Plains into Tuesday night
After weeks of dry weather, severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will target the Plains and Mississippi Valley early this week. Flooding, damaging winds and a few tornadoes could disrupt voting plans into Tuesday evening.
Gusty storms dumped hail and rain on Oklahoma on the evening of Nov. 2.
A major shift in the weather pattern is in store across the nation this week, bringing a gradual end to a prolonged stretch of dry weather across much of the central and eastern United States. A powerful storm is tracking into the nation's midsection on Tuesday, bringing the potential for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.
The storm is expected to tap into abundant moisture streaming in from both the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf as it moves into the Plains early this week. This influx of moisture, combined with other ingredients favorable for storm development, will help fuel the threat of severe thunderstorms.
Beyond the severe weather threat, the moisture-laden storm will also deliver much-needed rainfall to areas that have experienced weeks of dry weather, with wet conditions expected to spread from the Plains to the East Coast as the week progresses.
This will mark the first significant disruption to the stagnant weather pattern that has persisted across the eastern half of the nation in recent weeks.
Secondary severe season
Although severe weather activity has been limited across the Plains and East so far this fall, November historically features a secondary peak in severe weather activity. As colder air dives southward and clashes with warmth and humidity, conditions can become favorable for severe thunderstorms. “While we often think of severe weather season being in the spring, there's a secondary peak of severe weather climatologically in November, so severe weather outbreaks this time of year are not unusual,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick stated.
Election Day severe risk
The slow-moving storm is expected to bring another round of potentially disruptive thunderstorms on Election Day Tuesday. Residents across the Mississippi Valley, from the Gulf Coast northward into the Midwest, will want to remain weather-aware and account for the potential for inclement weather while making plans to head to the polls.
As the storm begins to slow down prior to midweek, thunderstorms could repeatedly track over the same areas, increasing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. “Thunderstorms that train over the same areas into Tuesday night can raise the risk of flash flooding, which can cause delays for people heading out to the polls,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Peyton Simmers explained. “Power outages are possible from these thunderstorms, which can also impact the polls,” Simmers added.
Communities including Houston, Cape Girardeau, Missouri, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Memphis, Tennessee, could be targeted by thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding, hail, damaging wind gusts and even a few tornadoes into Tuesday evening.
Some storms could produce wind gusts approaching the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 75 mph, potentially resulting in downed trees, power outages and other damage. Portable generators may be needed to keep the lights on, and equipment running at some polling stations.
The threat of severe weather is expected to become more localized heading into the middle of the week, but the risk of periods of heavy rainfall will continue across a broad area of the nation. While some locations could receive beneficial rainfall that helps ease lingering dry conditions, locally excessive rainfall could still lead to flooding concerns.
Thunderstorms are likely to continue affecting portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, a soaking rain is expected to shift its focus toward the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic before eventually reaching the Northeast by late in the week.
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