Tropical Storm Arthur? Conditions set stage for early start to season
By
Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 15, 2020 4:55 PM EDT
After dropping record rain in South Florida, a system remains on track to become the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season this weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect conditions to become more conducive for the system to organize into a tropical depression or storm over the warm waters offshore of Florida and near the Bahamas.
The system's low-level circulation was becoming better defined early Saturday afternoon, an indication that strengthening was ongoing.
This satellite image from Saturday afternoon, May 16, 2020, shows the area of disturbed weather that forecasters are monitoring to become the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. (CIRA/RAMMB)
CIRA/RAMMB
If the storm does not organize until later Saturday or Saturday night and it moves over slightly cooler water, it will likely be called a subtropical depression or storm – meaning it would be a hybrid of both a tropical and non-tropical storm.
Regardless, the first tropical or subtropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be called Arthur.
After likely being named, the storm will track offshore of the southeastern United States and pass about 75 to 125 miles off the coast of North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Sunday night or Monday. Around that time, the storm should be at its peak intensity with sustained winds of around 50-60 mph, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Worst impacts to Florida have ended
Residents of South Florida have already endured the worst impacts from the storm.
Thursday was the second wettest May day on record for the city of Marathon in the Florida Keys. Heavy rain totaled 5.76 inches, stopping short of the city’s rainiest May day record of 6.60 inches set on May 27 in 1959. Marathon picked up a total of 6.45 inches from May 14-15, when the normal precipitation for all of May is 3.35 inches.
Downpours and thunderstorms continued over parts of southern Florida on Friday night. The heaviest downpours triggered a number of flash flood warnings along the southeastern coast of Florida.
Street flooding was reported in and around the Miami metro area as the heavy rain poured down.
Gusty rain squalls, rough surf, strong rip currents and locally heavy rain will continue across the northern Bahamas through Saturday, before lifting northward by Sunday morning.
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Storm to brush past North Carolina’s Outer Banks as beaches reopen to visitors
As it pushes away from the waters near Florida and the Bahamas, the storm and its heavy rain will remain off the coast from northeastern Florida to southern North Carolina this weekend.
However, anyone planning to head to the beaches to seek relief from being pent up in recent months due to the COVID-19 pandemic should use caution. The risk of rough surf and strong rip currents will expand northward along the entire Southeast coast this weekend.
Along with the rough surf dangers, residents in the Outer Banks of North Carolina may also experience an uptick in gusty showers Sunday night into Monday.
“While it still appears that the worst of the storm will stay offshore, we are monitoring the potential for the storm to track closer to the coast and bring the Outer Banks more substantial rain and wind,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
"The Outer Banks will have the best chance at having a period of tropical storm conditions on Monday as the low makes its closest pass," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "The region is well prepared for this type of wind, so it should not produce much damage."
The Outer Banks reopened to visitors early Saturday after being shut down due to COVID-19 concerns. A video posted on Twitter showed lines of cars waiting for the barrier islands to reopen.
Beyond Monday, the storm is expected to lose its tropical characteristics as it tracks over the cool water well west and north of Bermuda Monday night through Wednesday.
At this time, the storm is expected to track away from the Northeast as a new storm from the Midwest takes up residence over the eastern U.S. for a lengthy time next week and leads to an extended stretch of wet and gloomy weather for some in the region.
It is not out of the question that this second storm pulls in the system that is expected to be called Arthur or its tropical moisture, causing even heavier rain to soak a swath of the East.
Even if the tropical system remains separate and heads out to sea, the second storm alone can still disrupt outdoor plans and even impact medical tents that are treating COVID-19 patients where its rain and gusty winds target the East.
Weekend storm to mark start of busy Atlantic hurricane season
The Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t start officially until June 1, but there has been a named storm before that day every year since 2015 – a trend that this weekend's storm should continue.
An early start to hurricane season is not a true indicator of how active the season will be, but Kottlowski is concerned that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has the potential to be 'very active.'
AccuWeather’s long-range forecasting team is predicting 14 to 20 tropical storms, of which seven to 11 will become hurricanes. Out of those hurricanes, the team anticipates four to six may strengthen further into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Kottlowski also warned that four to six named tropical systems could make direct impacts on the U.S. mainland, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Tropical Storm Arthur? Conditions set stage for early start to season
By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 15, 2020 4:55 PM EDT
After dropping record rain in South Florida, a system remains on track to become the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season this weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect conditions to become more conducive for the system to organize into a tropical depression or storm over the warm waters offshore of Florida and near the Bahamas.
The system's low-level circulation was becoming better defined early Saturday afternoon, an indication that strengthening was ongoing.
This satellite image from Saturday afternoon, May 16, 2020, shows the area of disturbed weather that forecasters are monitoring to become the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. (CIRA/RAMMB)
If the storm does not organize until later Saturday or Saturday night and it moves over slightly cooler water, it will likely be called a subtropical depression or storm – meaning it would be a hybrid of both a tropical and non-tropical storm.
Regardless, the first tropical or subtropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be called Arthur.
After likely being named, the storm will track offshore of the southeastern United States and pass about 75 to 125 miles off the coast of North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Sunday night or Monday. Around that time, the storm should be at its peak intensity with sustained winds of around 50-60 mph, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Worst impacts to Florida have ended
Residents of South Florida have already endured the worst impacts from the storm.
Thursday was the second wettest May day on record for the city of Marathon in the Florida Keys. Heavy rain totaled 5.76 inches, stopping short of the city’s rainiest May day record of 6.60 inches set on May 27 in 1959. Marathon picked up a total of 6.45 inches from May 14-15, when the normal precipitation for all of May is 3.35 inches.
Downpours and thunderstorms continued over parts of southern Florida on Friday night. The heaviest downpours triggered a number of flash flood warnings along the southeastern coast of Florida.
Street flooding was reported in and around the Miami metro area as the heavy rain poured down.
Related:
Gusty rain squalls, rough surf, strong rip currents and locally heavy rain will continue across the northern Bahamas through Saturday, before lifting northward by Sunday morning.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Storm to brush past North Carolina’s Outer Banks as beaches reopen to visitors
As it pushes away from the waters near Florida and the Bahamas, the storm and its heavy rain will remain off the coast from northeastern Florida to southern North Carolina this weekend.
However, anyone planning to head to the beaches to seek relief from being pent up in recent months due to the COVID-19 pandemic should use caution. The risk of rough surf and strong rip currents will expand northward along the entire Southeast coast this weekend.
Along with the rough surf dangers, residents in the Outer Banks of North Carolina may also experience an uptick in gusty showers Sunday night into Monday.
“While it still appears that the worst of the storm will stay offshore, we are monitoring the potential for the storm to track closer to the coast and bring the Outer Banks more substantial rain and wind,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
"The Outer Banks will have the best chance at having a period of tropical storm conditions on Monday as the low makes its closest pass," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "The region is well prepared for this type of wind, so it should not produce much damage."
The Outer Banks reopened to visitors early Saturday after being shut down due to COVID-19 concerns. A video posted on Twitter showed lines of cars waiting for the barrier islands to reopen.
Beyond Monday, the storm is expected to lose its tropical characteristics as it tracks over the cool water well west and north of Bermuda Monday night through Wednesday.
At this time, the storm is expected to track away from the Northeast as a new storm from the Midwest takes up residence over the eastern U.S. for a lengthy time next week and leads to an extended stretch of wet and gloomy weather for some in the region.
It is not out of the question that this second storm pulls in the system that is expected to be called Arthur or its tropical moisture, causing even heavier rain to soak a swath of the East.
Even if the tropical system remains separate and heads out to sea, the second storm alone can still disrupt outdoor plans and even impact medical tents that are treating COVID-19 patients where its rain and gusty winds target the East.
Weekend storm to mark start of busy Atlantic hurricane season
The Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t start officially until June 1, but there has been a named storm before that day every year since 2015 – a trend that this weekend's storm should continue.
An early start to hurricane season is not a true indicator of how active the season will be, but Kottlowski is concerned that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has the potential to be 'very active.'
AccuWeather’s long-range forecasting team is predicting 14 to 20 tropical storms, of which seven to 11 will become hurricanes. Out of those hurricanes, the team anticipates four to six may strengthen further into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Kottlowski also warned that four to six named tropical systems could make direct impacts on the U.S. mainland, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo