Tropical Depression 3 expected to strengthen before South Carolina landfall
As the tropical depression gains strength, wind gusts of 40 miles per hour or greater are expected along the coast of South Carolina on Saturday.
Coastal areas in the Carolinas and Virginia will feel tropical impacts for the first time in 2025 over this holiday weekend.
A zone that has been on AccuWeather meteorologists' radar since mid-June has evolved into Tropical Depression 3, which is the next step toward becoming a tropical storm as early as Friday night or Saturday.
Tropical Depression 3 forecast to strengthen
The first impacts of Tropical Depression 3 nearby in the Atlantic will be from sporadic showers and thunderstorms off the east coast of Florida. The process will evolve through the end of the week.
"This will be a classic example of homegrown development, by which a tropical storm may form close to the southeast Atlantic coast and in an area where it is typical for July," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Thursday morning.
As this occurs, barometric pressure will fall. Next, the zone should begin to develop a circular wind field, which will cause breezes to stiffen along the coast and over adjacent Atlantic waters. Seas and surf will build from the Florida Atlantic coast to the North Carolina Outer Banks during the extended Independence Day weekend.
"Waters are sufficiently warm in the region, generally in the 80s Fahrenheit, plus the Gulf Stream will continuously feed warm water as seas become rough and upwelling begins," DaSilva said.
There are two deterrents working against explosive development. One is proximity to land, and the other is moderate wind shear or disruptive breezes in the lower and middle parts of the atmosphere, DaSilva explained.
AccuWeather initially declared the system a tropical rainstorm early Friday to raise public awareness of meteorologists' concern for locally heavy rain, gusty thunderstorms and potentially dangerous seas and surf. As the tropical depression gains strength, wind gusts of 40 miles per hour or greater are expected along the coast of South Carolina on Saturday.
"Steering breezes will likely guide the tropical system northwestward and then northward during the weekend to early next week," DaSilva said. "How long it is able to remain over water may determine how strong it is able to become in terms of winds and extent of heavy rain."
Should the mass of showers and thunderstorms evolve into a tropical storm, the next name on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is Chantal, following Andrea and Barry from June.
Current indications are that a zone of clouds and downpours with locally gusty winds may move north along the mid-Atlantic coast early next week, which could limit a building area of heat from the Midwest. However, just west of the influence of the tropical downpours, heat could be enhanced over the Appalachians.
"Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we see a vast area of dry air, wind shear and Saharan dust that will limit or prevent tropical development in the short term, and that is not unusual for July," DaSilva said.
Eastern Pacific: Flossie faded but Gil brewing soon
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, a new area of showers and thunderstorms is projected by AccuWeather to evolve soon into the next tropical depression and storm for the eastern Pacific.
The next name on the list for the 2025 season is Gil.
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