Tropical Cyclone Gretel expected to develop near Australia by week's end
By
Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Mar 10, 2020 2:45 PM EDT
Heavy rain made for treacherous travel in Darwin, Northern Territory, on March 9, as roads flooded, trapping some cars along roads.
A week after Esther finished tracking across the country, the tropics are once again heating up near Australia's Top End.
Tropical moisture that has been been sitting over extreme northern Australia has been producing rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier downpours have caused flooding in the area, including around Darwin, Northern Territory, where 131 mm (5.16 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours on Sunday.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring this area for potential tropical development, and expect Tropical Cyclone Gretel to develop in the coming days.
An area of tropical moisture moved through the Gulf of Carpentaria early in the week, and then a weak low pressure began to develop. Midweek, the low began moving eastward over the Cape York Peninsula.
Should a tropical cyclone form, it will be given the name Gretel.
"Widespread rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) are likely with local amounts over 150 mm (6 inches)," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
"The low emerged over the western Coral Sea on Thursday, [where it] has an improved chance to become Tropical Cyclone Gretel."
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Over the warm water of the Coral Sea, the storm will be in an area of light wind shear and will have less interaction with land; these are conditions conducive for tropical development.
"Once over the Coral Sea, the system is expected to track southeastward away from Queensland into the weekend," Nicholls added.
The above visible satellite image shows increased tropical moisture off the coast of northeast Australia on Friday, March 13. (Photo/RAMMB)
The track of the storm is forecast to remain far enough away from the Queensland coast to keep the heaviest rain and strongest winds out to sea.
Some outer rainbands from the storm could bring gusty winds and occasional showers and thunderstorms, but the main threat will be rough seas across the Coral Sea into the weekend.
However, if the storm follows a track more to the south it could bring flooding rainfall and strong wind gusts to the coastal areas of Queensland.
Residents in Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the storm through the weekend as it's expected to follow a southeasterly path and could make landfall or pass nearby the islands into early next week.
Meanwhile, another tropical low is located to the south of Indonesia's island of Java.
This small storm will follow a path toward the coast of northwestern Australia, but is likely to remain a weak, unnamed low due to high wind shear over the area.
"This low can bring scattered rain to the Gascoyne and Pilbara coasts late in the week," said Nicholls.
The Australia cyclone season officially runs from November to April.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Tropical Cyclone Gretel expected to develop near Australia by week's end
By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Mar 10, 2020 2:45 PM EDT
Heavy rain made for treacherous travel in Darwin, Northern Territory, on March 9, as roads flooded, trapping some cars along roads.
A week after Esther finished tracking across the country, the tropics are once again heating up near Australia's Top End.
Tropical moisture that has been been sitting over extreme northern Australia has been producing rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Heavier downpours have caused flooding in the area, including around Darwin, Northern Territory, where 131 mm (5.16 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours on Sunday.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring this area for potential tropical development, and expect Tropical Cyclone Gretel to develop in the coming days.
An area of tropical moisture moved through the Gulf of Carpentaria early in the week, and then a weak low pressure began to develop. Midweek, the low began moving eastward over the Cape York Peninsula.
Should a tropical cyclone form, it will be given the name Gretel.
"Widespread rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) are likely with local amounts over 150 mm (6 inches)," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
"The low emerged over the western Coral Sea on Thursday, [where it] has an improved chance to become Tropical Cyclone Gretel."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Over the warm water of the Coral Sea, the storm will be in an area of light wind shear and will have less interaction with land; these are conditions conducive for tropical development.
"Once over the Coral Sea, the system is expected to track southeastward away from Queensland into the weekend," Nicholls added.
The above visible satellite image shows increased tropical moisture off the coast of northeast Australia on Friday, March 13. (Photo/RAMMB)
The track of the storm is forecast to remain far enough away from the Queensland coast to keep the heaviest rain and strongest winds out to sea.
Some outer rainbands from the storm could bring gusty winds and occasional showers and thunderstorms, but the main threat will be rough seas across the Coral Sea into the weekend.
However, if the storm follows a track more to the south it could bring flooding rainfall and strong wind gusts to the coastal areas of Queensland.
Residents in Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the storm through the weekend as it's expected to follow a southeasterly path and could make landfall or pass nearby the islands into early next week.
Related:
Meanwhile, another tropical low is located to the south of Indonesia's island of Java.
This small storm will follow a path toward the coast of northwestern Australia, but is likely to remain a weak, unnamed low due to high wind shear over the area.
"This low can bring scattered rain to the Gascoyne and Pilbara coasts late in the week," said Nicholls.
The Australia cyclone season officially runs from November to April.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo