Tropical activity increases across Atlantic as heavy rain targets the Lesser Antilles
After Cristobal quickly formed and dissipated, AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking several areas for potential topical development across the Atlantic.
There’s now a more than 90% chance El Niño becomes a super El Niño by the end of hurricane season, which could help limit tropical activity late in the season, but a quieter season doesn’t mean a harmless one.
Tropical activity is increasing across the Atlantic Ocean with the peak of the hurricane season just weeks away. AccuWeather meteorologists have highlighted two areas for potential development right on the heels of Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Tropical Storm Cristobal, the first named storm in the Atlantic basin since Bertha in mid-July, formed on Wednesday morning. It quickly encountered several factors that limited its strength in the North Atlantic, including relatively low sea-surface temperatures and disruptive winds known as wind shear. By Thursday morning, Cristobal had dissipated.
A tropical wave is expected to track west towards the Lesser Antilles. If this system were to strengthen into a tropical storm, the next name on the 2026 Atlantic basin list is Dolly.
"Due to the combination of dry air and disruptive winds, the tropical wave is expected to lose wind intensity as it approaches the Lesser Antilles before dissipating as it enters the eastern Caribbean," AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicholas Arman said.
Despite the expected loss of wind intensity, the tropical wave is expected to bring some much-needed rainfall to drought-affected areas of the Lesser Antilles. Localized flash flooding could occur where heavier rain tracks over the same areas.
"A widespread 1-2 inches of rain is forecast across much of the Lesser Antilles and the U.S. Virgin Islands. An area of heavier rain is expected across portions of the northern Lesser Antilles including Guadeloupe and Dominica, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches," Arman added.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands has a medium risk of tropical development in the coming days. Dry air and disruptive winds are expected to limit its opportunity to strengthen.
This wide view image of the tropical Atlantic was captured Thursday afternoon, Aug. 13, 2026. A tropical wave appears near the center of the image. A second tropical wave can be seen to the right. The Leeward and Windward islands of the Caribbean appear on the far left. Africa appears on the far right. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
The position of this wave will largely be determined by a strong area of high pressure over the ocean known as the Bermuda High. A stronger Bermuda High extending farther west would keep it farther south, directing it toward the Caribbean. A weaker high pressure would steer the gathering storm farther to the northwest.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should also monitor the latest forecast of this feature as it tracks west.
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