Tropics showing signs of life in the Atlantic
Two areas of interest in the Atlantic will track towards the Caribbean, but dry air and wind shear may play a limiting factor.
Despite Tropical Storm Bertha washing away some sea turtle nests in Florida, the summer of 2026 is already breaking records for the number of nests throughout the Southeast.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring three areas of interest for potential tropical development across the Atlantic, with the first feature east of the Lesser Antilles likely to encounter a more hostile environment, while a second tropical wave could find somewhat more favorable conditions later this week. There is another area northeast of Bermuda that also has a low risk of tropical development.
The first area near the Lesser Antilles has a low risk for development from Aug. 11-12. A second tropical wave trailing behind it has a high risk for development from Aug. 12-15 as it moves westward across the central Atlantic.
Both areas of interest are traversing the Main Development Region (MDR), an area of the tropical Atlantic where much of the basin's tropical activity originates. Tropical activity in the MDR typically begins to increase during August before reaching its seasonal peak in September.
Tropical waves will battle dust and shear
The first tropical wave will have to overcome several obstacles as it moves westward. Saharan dust, dry air and increasing wind shear are expected to limit the tropical wave’s ability to organize, particularly as it approaches the Caribbean.
However, the first wave could indirectly pave the way for the second tropical wave.
As the leading wave moves through the Atlantic, it could help displace some of the dry air and dust along its path, potentially leaving a somewhat more favorable environment for the second wave to follow. A temporary decrease in wind shear could also provide the trailing disturbance with a window to become better organized.
“While there will be dry air and African dust this week in the MDR, lower wind shear can allow for gradual development later this week,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Environmental conditions are expected to be less favorable for development closer to the Lesser Antilles.”
While conditions will not be ideal across the entire Atlantic, the second tropical wave could encounter a more favorable environment if it remains far enough north as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
“If the second wave is able to stay north of the Lesser Antilles, it could avoid the core of the higher wind shear,” DaSilva said.
Both tropical waves are expected to continue moving westward across the Atlantic, with their potential for development largely dependent on how quickly they can organize and whether they encounter more favorable atmospheric conditions.
Where these systems ultimately track will be an important factor in determining how much they can strengthen. Stronger wind shear near the Caribbean would likely disrupt the organization of either feature, while a track farther north could allow the trailing wave to maintain better structure over warm Atlantic waters.
"There is also an area of low pressure north of Bermuda that has a low chance of development from Aug. 11-12 as it moves east over the open Atlantic," DaSilva said. "If anything develops in this third area of interest, there would be no direct impacts to the U.S. or Bermuda."
The Atlantic has recorded two named storms so far this season, Arthur and Bertha. If any of the disturbances currently being monitored were to become tropical storms, the next names on the 2026 Atlantic list would be Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard.
El Niño to play a significant role this season
The broader atmospheric pattern is also working against significant tropical development. El Niño typically limits Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear across the basin, making it more difficult for tropical waves to maintain organized thunderstorms and develop into tropical cyclones.
That pattern does not eliminate the possibility of development, however. Tropical waves can still find brief windows of favorable conditions, particularly while moving through the MDR.
For now, none of the low-pressure areas pose an immediate threat to land. The primary focus will be on whether the second wave can maintain its organization while moving westward and whether it can remain north of the strongest wind shear near the Caribbean.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor both disturbances for signs of increasing organization through the middle of August.
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