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    Atlantic not active but there are a few potential features to worry about

    9/20/2018 3:00:00 PM

    There are no organized tropical systems across the Atlantic at this time, but we are watching a few areas for potential development over the next several days.

    An area of low pressure located about 150 miles north of Bermuda which has formed along a weak frontal boundary will track southeast and pass just east of Bermuda later tonight and tomorrow and then move south of those islands on Saturday and then to the west on Sunday. This projected path will bring the system over warm water and this low pressure area could acquire some tropical characteristics during the next few days. Long range computer forecasts take the center of this system just east of the North Carolina coast later next week. Residents and interests along the North Carolina coast might need to monitor this system by next week.

    We continue to monitor a weak area of low pressure along a tropical wave located around 800 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. Current satellite imagery shows a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this tropical wave as it continues to track off to the west. There is a small chance this weak area of low pressure might develop further over the next 24 hours or so before it moves into an area of higher wind shear. Once this system moves within this area of strong wind shear further development will be less likely.

    Elsewhere in the basin, a non-tropical area of low pressure will form over the central Atlantic this weekend. If the system moves far enough south into warmer water environmental conditions may become favorable for this system to evolve into a subtropical or tropical storm next week.

    A strong tropical wave is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa. Some computer forecasts show this system attempting to organize during next week.

    By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

    2018 Atlantic Storms

    Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence
    Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie
    Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sara
    Tony Valerie William

    Atlantic Basin Maps

    National Hurricane Center Outlook

    NHC Atlantic Activity
    
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 210515
    TWOAT 
    
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018
    
    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
    
    A tropical wave located more than 700 miles southeast of the Cabo
    Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible
    during the next several days as the disturbance moves westward at
    15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central
    tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
    
    A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
    associated with a tropical wave is located about 650 miles east of
    the Windward Islands.  The combination of dry mid-level air and
    strong upper-level winds is expected to hinder any development of
    this disturbance while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
    around 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
    
    A non-tropical area of low pressure located less than 100 miles
    northeast of Bermuda, is moving southward at 10 to 15 mph. Shower
    activity has diminished significantly during the past several
    hours, and the combination of dry air and strong upper-level winds
    is expected to inhibit any significant development for the next
    several days while the system moves southward on Friday, and then
    drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda over the weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
    
    Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop
    by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
    between Bermuda and the Azores.  Conditions are expected to be
    conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical
    characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected
    to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders
    over the central Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
    
    
    

    Hurricane Center 2018

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