Rafael taking a turn away from US
Tropical activity will cut the United States a big break with Rafael taking a track that will spare the central Gulf region from flooding rain and damaging winds.
With powerful winds and pouring rain, Rafael struck Cuba as a major hurricane on Nov. 6.
After becoming a major hurricane and making landfall in western Cuba Wednesday evening, Rafael is now expected to avoid landfall in the United States, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Rafael is being tugged north by a storm tracking over the U.S., but will not make it to U.S. soil. Eventually, it will track away from the U.S., and is forecast to lose wind intensity gradually this weekend.
This will be the first hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in 2024 that will not make landfall in the U.S.
As of 3 a.m. CST on Sunday, Rafael continues to lose wind intensity and is a tropical storm slowly moving north-northwest at 2 mph. During Monday night, Rafael became the first major November hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Kate in 1985.
"Rafael is exercising a scenario that we've been mentioning since the last week of October," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "It now appears that the non-tropical storm over the South Central states will not completely scoop up the hurricane and draw it northward into the central Gulf states as feared."
There will still be a period this weekend when the non-tropical storm grabs and pulls Rafael a bit northward.
That brief grab may result in a stall or loop in the track before resuming a west-to-southwest direction.
"As Rafael takes this west-southwest track, it will be subject to increasing wind shear (disruptive breezes), which will cause it to gradually lose wind intensity," Rayno said.
By the time Rafael reaches the Bay of Campeche, it should be a tropical storm and not a powerful hurricane.
With the track away from the U.S., there is no concern of its rain overlapping with downpours affecting parts of the Southeast states from Wednesday to Thursday, which might have brought dangerous conditions to the southern Appalachians that were hit hard by Helene in late September.
Impacts to the U.S. from Rafael will be indirect and mostly in the form of rough seas over the gulf and rough surf along the Gulf Coast beaches into this weekend.
As Rafael interacts with the approach of the non-tropical storm from the Rockies, some moisture in the form of soaking rain will be pulled northward into the Mississippi Delta region this weekend.
The wave action can bring significant overwash and minor coastal flooding to the Florida Keys and the southwestern part of the Florida Peninsula.
Because of Rafael's plunger effect on the water surface, rip currents will be strong and frequent on the beaches along the Gulf Coast through the weekend.
More significant rain may be flung into northeastern Mexico this week, which could raise concerns of flash flooding. There is also the chance that wind shear rips up Rafael before ever pushing onshore.
Some showers and thunderstorms will march from west to east across the South Central and Southeast states, associated with a slow-moving cool front that will last from late last week to early this week.
The downpours triggering localized torrential rain and flash flooding in southeastern Georgia and the southeastern parts of the Carolinas will move away before the end of the week.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor a feature traveling westward over the northern Islands of the Caribbean.
Steering breezes will guide this feature on a westerly path into the weekend, then a shift of winds may force it southwestward or northeastward and likely away from Florida. If the shift of winds fails to occur, there could be a way for it to reach Florida.
Regardless, downpours associated with a broadening plume of moisture from the Caribbean to Florida may bring some showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into the week.
AccuWeather hurricane experts are also monitoring a second area for potential development in the Caribbean that could occur in the latter half this week into the weekend.
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