Next tropical threat to emerge over Caribbean as November begins
Strong winds have kept tropical development at bay but AccuWeather hurricane experts say that could change during the first week of November.
Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva continue to monitor the tropics as we head into the month of November. It is expected to become more active with between one and three named storms predicted.
Although the Atlantic basin has remained dormant since Oscar roamed the northern Caribbean, AccuWeather hurricane experts say the tropics should reactivate next week.
Tropical development in the Caribbean Sea can sometimes progress slowly, and we've seen that to be the case this week, according to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "We still think there will be tropical development in this zone going into November."
Over the past several days, the necessary ingredients for tropical development, such as moisture and unusually high ocean temperatures, have been present, but no named storms have emerged. The setback?
"High wind shear is why development has been slow to evolve. It has created a very hostile environment for showers and thunderstorms to organize into a tropical threat. There is not a lot of dry air in place, so it's really just the wind shear that has been holding things back," DaSilva explained.
Although conditions have been hostile of late, the environment is expected to become more conducive for a tropical depression or storm to form heading into the first week of November.
"Next week, most of the wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean, and so it will basically create a pocket with high ocean temperatures, plenty of moisture and very low wind shear that will be favorable for tropical development," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather experts say there is a high (near 90%) chance of development, while the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has held a medium (60%) chance of development in a similar zone. No matter the chance of development, rough surf and downpours are likely across the Caribbean into next week.
"There is another area of interest to the northeast of Hispaniola, but that is less likely to develop due to a lot of wind shear," DaSilva said.
"Occasionally, budding tropical features can overcome the odds, especially if they move along in the same direction as the wind shear, or in this case, to the west, initially," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said, "With that drift, the wind east to northeast wind shear becomes less of a factor."
Should the more northern feature evolve, it may tend to drift toward the west and near the larger islands of the Caribbean, which may hinder significant intensification initially, Sosnowski added.
Any tropical threat that forms in the highest-risk development zone could take one of two paths.
"Should tropical development occur in the Caribbean Sea next week, there are two scenarios for movement: one toward Central America and another near the Yucatan Peninsula," AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said. "A more northern track would elevate the risk of impacts to the eastern Gulf coast, likely in the Nov. 6-11 time frame."
A large area of high pressure is expected to develop over the east coast of the United States next week, which is likely to have big implications on the path of any storm brewing farther south.
"This high will help steer any developing storm to the west at least initially. The next question is whether the high pressure is strong enough to keep directing the storm into Central America or if there’s a possibility for it to turn more north and northeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico," DaSilva said.
Earlier this week, AccuWeather experts announced that an additional one to three named storms were expected this year. In the U.S., Florida and the Southeast coast remain at an elevated risk for tropical impacts while there is a lower risk in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane list is Patty.
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