Emerging tropical threat may follow in Grace's footsteps
By
Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 25, 2021 12:38 AM EDT
Hurricane Grace pounded the Mexican east coast with heavy rain, high winds and flooding on Aug. 21. It left behind significant damage along the shoreline in Tecolutla.
Just days after Hurricane Grace ravaged parts of Mexico with deadly force, AccuWeather forecasters were warning that a new brewing tropical threat can bring more dangerous impacts to the same areas and slow recovery efforts.
Hurricane Grace strengthened into the first major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, packing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (200 km/h) during its second landfall in eastern Mexico this past weekend. It made its first landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the eastern Yucatán Peninsula last Thursday. At least eight people died as a result of the storm and several others remained missing.
AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring a weak and rather disorganized tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean that produced showers and breezy conditions on Tuesday. Forecasters say this tropical disturbance is likely to develop into a named system in the southwestern part of the Atlantic basin either late this week or this weekend as it nears Central and North America.
Several factors will come into play to determine when, where and how much the system will strengthen.
To the north of this tropical wave, across the southwestern Atlantic, a plume of Saharan Dust made its way westward and over South Florida, creating milky white skies in Miami.
While this tropical wave is tracking to the south of the most dense area of African dust and through an area of tropical moisture, a factor that typically favors tropical development, a different factor could inhibit this tropical wave from becoming better organized through the middle of the week.
"As this disturbance moves steadily westward across the Caribbean it is expected to encounter strong wind shear through early Thursday, which will likely inhibit development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
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Even if it does not strengthen, the tropical wave can enhance showers and thunderstorms into Thursday across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, two areas that were also pummeled by Grace's heavy rain last week.
"However, by late in the week, wind shear is expected to diminish across the western Caribbean Sea, which may open the door for development over the northwest Caribbean," added Adkins.
If this happens, the system may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm prior to reaching Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.
Should this system become a tropical storm (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h) it would be given the name Ida, barring any other tropical development across the basin earlier in the week. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say there are two other tropical features being monitored in the Atlantic basin, and one of them could potentially become a tropical storm and be named first.
This potential tropical threat is expected to track across the Yucatán Peninsula this weekend, bringing with it bouts of heavy rain which can trigger flooding, even if it does not intensify into a tropical storm. If it does become better organized into a tropical storm, damaging winds will be a threat as well.
"If the system does not develop before reaching the Yucatán Peninsula, it will have another opportunity to do so across the Bay of Campeche this weekend," said Adkins.
The system is expected to track westward across the Bay of Campeche, situated in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, over the weekend and into eastern Mexico by early next week. Areas that recently took the brunt of Grace's fury when it roared in as a Category 3 hurricane will once again be at risk as the new threat approaches.
Regardless of development, this will have the potential to trigger new flooding and mudslides across the region due to the surge of tropical moisture and rainfall associated with it.
While this potential tropical system may unload heavy rain over areas hard-hit by Grace, it is not out of the question that it could track farther to the north and bring heavy rainfall or even some wind to South Texas. As a result, interests along the Texas coastline and other areas of the Gulf Coast will want to closely monitor the path of this brewing tropical threat.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Emerging tropical threat may follow in Grace's footsteps
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 25, 2021 12:38 AM EDT
Hurricane Grace pounded the Mexican east coast with heavy rain, high winds and flooding on Aug. 21. It left behind significant damage along the shoreline in Tecolutla.
Just days after Hurricane Grace ravaged parts of Mexico with deadly force, AccuWeather forecasters were warning that a new brewing tropical threat can bring more dangerous impacts to the same areas and slow recovery efforts.
Hurricane Grace strengthened into the first major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, packing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (200 km/h) during its second landfall in eastern Mexico this past weekend. It made its first landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the eastern Yucatán Peninsula last Thursday. At least eight people died as a result of the storm and several others remained missing.
AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring a weak and rather disorganized tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean that produced showers and breezy conditions on Tuesday. Forecasters say this tropical disturbance is likely to develop into a named system in the southwestern part of the Atlantic basin either late this week or this weekend as it nears Central and North America.
Several factors will come into play to determine when, where and how much the system will strengthen.
To the north of this tropical wave, across the southwestern Atlantic, a plume of Saharan Dust made its way westward and over South Florida, creating milky white skies in Miami.
While this tropical wave is tracking to the south of the most dense area of African dust and through an area of tropical moisture, a factor that typically favors tropical development, a different factor could inhibit this tropical wave from becoming better organized through the middle of the week.
"As this disturbance moves steadily westward across the Caribbean it is expected to encounter strong wind shear through early Thursday, which will likely inhibit development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Even if it does not strengthen, the tropical wave can enhance showers and thunderstorms into Thursday across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, two areas that were also pummeled by Grace's heavy rain last week.
"However, by late in the week, wind shear is expected to diminish across the western Caribbean Sea, which may open the door for development over the northwest Caribbean," added Adkins.
If this happens, the system may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm prior to reaching Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.
Should this system become a tropical storm (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h) it would be given the name Ida, barring any other tropical development across the basin earlier in the week. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say there are two other tropical features being monitored in the Atlantic basin, and one of them could potentially become a tropical storm and be named first.
This potential tropical threat is expected to track across the Yucatán Peninsula this weekend, bringing with it bouts of heavy rain which can trigger flooding, even if it does not intensify into a tropical storm. If it does become better organized into a tropical storm, damaging winds will be a threat as well.
"If the system does not develop before reaching the Yucatán Peninsula, it will have another opportunity to do so across the Bay of Campeche this weekend," said Adkins.
The system is expected to track westward across the Bay of Campeche, situated in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, over the weekend and into eastern Mexico by early next week. Areas that recently took the brunt of Grace's fury when it roared in as a Category 3 hurricane will once again be at risk as the new threat approaches.
Regardless of development, this will have the potential to trigger new flooding and mudslides across the region due to the surge of tropical moisture and rainfall associated with it.
While this potential tropical system may unload heavy rain over areas hard-hit by Grace, it is not out of the question that it could track farther to the north and bring heavy rainfall or even some wind to South Texas. As a result, interests along the Texas coastline and other areas of the Gulf Coast will want to closely monitor the path of this brewing tropical threat.
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Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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