New tropical threat being monitored in East Pacific
By
Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Jun 8, 2022 1:19 PM EDT
|
Updated Jun 11, 2022 11:01 AM EDT
An area of warm water south of Mexico is being closely monitored by AccuWeather's team of tropical weather experts, as a new threat could emerge in the coming days. The East Pacific has been quiet since Hurricane Agatha's record-breaking landfall last month, but clusters of showers and thunderstorms near Central America could become the next organized tropical threat in the basin.
Following Alex which dropped over 10 inches of rain in South Florida, tropical activity in the Atlantic basin has come to a halt, while the opposite is happening in the East Pacific.
AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite imagery shows clusters of thunderstorms south of Mexico on Thursday morning, June 9, 2022. (AccuWeather)
"The main development areas in the tropical Atlantic will remain dominated by strong wind shear and pockets of dry air through the weekend, inhibiting any tropical activity," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty explained.
Still, Douty noted that although the Atlantic remains quiet, the East Pacific has the potential to become active by this weekend.
Tropical experts are monitoring the next area of tropical development that, as of Thursday, was in the form of a tropical wave located near Nicaragua and Costa Rica. This tropical wave is causing a cluster of thunderstorms to erupt across the region. Through the remainder of the week, this wave will continue to lack organization and is not expected to become a named storm in the near term.
"Tropical development of this feature is possible this weekend or early next week between the dates of June 12 and June 14, as the tropical wave moves farther west into a zone of warm water and light wind shear," according to Douty.
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While the ultimate path of any potential tropical system remains in question, it is possible for the tropical entity, regardless of development, to track close enough to southern Mexico to bring impacts such as an uptick in wind gusts and tropical downpours next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that if the storm develops far enough to the west, it may track into the open waters of the eastern Pacific. Under that scenario, the storm would not impact land and would have no chance of tracking across Mexico and into the Atlantic basin like what was left of Agatha did.
"Should a system form early in the period (June 11-12), then it is more likely to be located closer to the southern coast of Mexico with a greater chance for impacts," Douty said. "However, if development happens a little slower (June 13-14), then it is more likely to develop a little farther from land with a lower threat for impacts."
Agatha, the first named storm of the 2022 East Pacific hurricane season, made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph along the southern coast of Mexico, making the storm the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the month of May since records began in 1949.
Agatha then quickly lost its hurricane status and become an area of tropical low pressure over Mexico. Agatha's leftover energy eventually reached the northwest Caribbean. The leftover parts of Agatha then steadily organized into a tropical rainstorm over the Gulf of Mexico but wouldn't eventually become Tropical Storm Alex until after it departed Florida this past Sunday.
The system dumped more than 10 inches of rainfall over portions of South Florida and northwestern Cuba, turning streets into rivers, submerging and stranding vehicles and killing at least two people in Cuba.
The next tropical storm in the East Pacific will be given the name Blas.
Additionally, in the longer range from June 15th-18th, AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring a region of the East Pacific basin near southern and western Mexico for potential tropical development. Regardless of development, pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf will be possible during this timeframe.
AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting a normal to slightly above-normal hurricane season in the East Pacific with 15-19 named storms this season, including Agatha. Of those storms, six to eight are expected to become hurricanes and two to four could become major hurricanes.
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News / Hurricane
New tropical threat being monitored in East Pacific
By Nicole LoBiondo, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Jun 8, 2022 1:19 PM EDT | Updated Jun 11, 2022 11:01 AM EDT
An area of warm water south of Mexico is being closely monitored by AccuWeather's team of tropical weather experts, as a new threat could emerge in the coming days. The East Pacific has been quiet since Hurricane Agatha's record-breaking landfall last month, but clusters of showers and thunderstorms near Central America could become the next organized tropical threat in the basin.
Following Alex which dropped over 10 inches of rain in South Florida, tropical activity in the Atlantic basin has come to a halt, while the opposite is happening in the East Pacific.
AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite imagery shows clusters of thunderstorms south of Mexico on Thursday morning, June 9, 2022. (AccuWeather)
"The main development areas in the tropical Atlantic will remain dominated by strong wind shear and pockets of dry air through the weekend, inhibiting any tropical activity," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty explained.
Still, Douty noted that although the Atlantic remains quiet, the East Pacific has the potential to become active by this weekend.
Tropical experts are monitoring the next area of tropical development that, as of Thursday, was in the form of a tropical wave located near Nicaragua and Costa Rica. This tropical wave is causing a cluster of thunderstorms to erupt across the region. Through the remainder of the week, this wave will continue to lack organization and is not expected to become a named storm in the near term.
"Tropical development of this feature is possible this weekend or early next week between the dates of June 12 and June 14, as the tropical wave moves farther west into a zone of warm water and light wind shear," according to Douty.
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While the ultimate path of any potential tropical system remains in question, it is possible for the tropical entity, regardless of development, to track close enough to southern Mexico to bring impacts such as an uptick in wind gusts and tropical downpours next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that if the storm develops far enough to the west, it may track into the open waters of the eastern Pacific. Under that scenario, the storm would not impact land and would have no chance of tracking across Mexico and into the Atlantic basin like what was left of Agatha did.
"Should a system form early in the period (June 11-12), then it is more likely to be located closer to the southern coast of Mexico with a greater chance for impacts," Douty said. "However, if development happens a little slower (June 13-14), then it is more likely to develop a little farther from land with a lower threat for impacts."
Agatha, the first named storm of the 2022 East Pacific hurricane season, made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph along the southern coast of Mexico, making the storm the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the month of May since records began in 1949.
Agatha then quickly lost its hurricane status and become an area of tropical low pressure over Mexico. Agatha's leftover energy eventually reached the northwest Caribbean. The leftover parts of Agatha then steadily organized into a tropical rainstorm over the Gulf of Mexico but wouldn't eventually become Tropical Storm Alex until after it departed Florida this past Sunday.
The system dumped more than 10 inches of rainfall over portions of South Florida and northwestern Cuba, turning streets into rivers, submerging and stranding vehicles and killing at least two people in Cuba.
The next tropical storm in the East Pacific will be given the name Blas.
Additionally, in the longer range from June 15th-18th, AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring a region of the East Pacific basin near southern and western Mexico for potential tropical development. Regardless of development, pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf will be possible during this timeframe.
AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting a normal to slightly above-normal hurricane season in the East Pacific with 15-19 named storms this season, including Agatha. Of those storms, six to eight are expected to become hurricanes and two to four could become major hurricanes.
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