A 121-year-old Atlantic hurricane record could be broken in October
The Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane in 2026, putting the season within reach of a record set in 1905 for the latest first hurricane. AccuWeather is now forecasting 0-2 hurricanes through the end of the season.
Water surged through Wailuku River State Park in Hilo as Hurricane Nolo passed Hawaii’s Big Island on Sept. 27. All local state parks on the Big Island, Maui and Molokai were closed as a precaution.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is closing in on a 121-year-old record.
So far, there have been eight named storms, including three that have made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States, but none have strengthened beyond a tropical storm. With only two months left in the season, AccuWeather has updated its Atlantic forecast and is now calling for zero to two hurricanes.
Bob Givehchi, right, and his son Daniel, 8, Toronto residents visiting Miami for the first time, walk past debris and palm trees blowing in gusty winds, at Matheson Hammock Park in Coral Gables, Fla., Dec. 15, 2023. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
"AccuWeather is now the first known source to predict the potential for zero hurricanes this season," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "The reason for this assessment is the high confidence of a record-strong Super El Niño developing in the Pacific, resulting in a less conducive environment for thunderstorm development in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean."
Could 2026 end without a hurricane?
An Atlantic season without a hurricane would be exceedingly rare.
Oct. 8 is the latest date on record for the first hurricane of an Atlantic season, a mark set in 1905. If no hurricane develops by the end of next week, the Atlantic would move deeper into the calendar year than any other season on record before producing its first hurricane -- if one forms at all.
Only two years in the historical record, 1907 and 1914, finished without a known hurricane. If 2026 follows suit, it would be the first hurricane-free Atlantic season in more than a century, and only the third since record-keeping began in 1851.
There is still time for a hurricane to spin up over the warm waters of the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Fay almost achieved hurricane status with winds peaking at 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of becoming a Category 1 storm, but it failed to reach the benchmark. It may only take one more storm to briefly intensify to snap the hurricane-free streak across the basin.
AccuWeather is predicting a total of 8 to 11 named storms, with a 10% chance of there being 12 or more named storms.
Warm water near the U.S. keeps risk alive
The risk of a damaging late-season storm has not disappeared, even with the possibility of finishing 2026 without a hurricane.
"Despite the historical lack of hurricanes in similar seasons after Oct. 1, this season features very warm waters off the Southeast coast and in the Gulf that could allow a storm in that region to gain hurricane intensity, even well into the fall," DaSilva said.
Warm water near land can also leave less time for people to prepare if a storm develops or intensifies rapidly along the coast.
The northern and eastern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are the areas of the U.S. that face a higher-than-historical average risk of a direct tropical impact, including both tropical storms and hurricanes.
The central and lower Texas coast faces a lower risk of significant impacts from tropical storms or hurricanes during the rest of the autumn.
El Niño is making it harder for Atlantic storms to form, strengthen
One of the biggest reasons behind the unusual lack of hurricanes is the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. Strong El Niño conditions are already present, and it may become the strongest El Niño on record before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30.
El Niño typically increases disruptive winds high in the atmosphere over parts of the Atlantic. Those winds, known as wind shear, can prevent thunderstorms from organizing around tropical systems and make it more difficult for hurricanes to develop.
"The strength of El Niño late in the season can have a dramatic impact on late October and November activity," DaSilva said. "The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater the likelihood of a less active end to the season."
Of the last three Super El Niños, 2015 is the only one on record where there has been a hurricane after Oct. 1.
Even with an increasingly hostile environment across much of the Atlantic, very warm water closer to the U.S. means any tropical system that finds a brief favorable window will still need to be watched closely through the remainder of hurricane season.
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