More tropical activity may brew over Gulf this week
As a mass of showers and thunderstorms from the United States moves over open waters of the Gulf this week, there is a low chance of tropical development.
A widespread storm system infused with tropical moisture triggered flash flooding across parts of Louisiana on July 17.
As a belt of high pressure builds over much of the southern United States this week, waters over the northern Gulf to areas along the central Gulf coast as well as a pair of zones in the Atlantic will be the zones to watch for tropical development, AccuWeather meteorologists advise.
"Basically, a swirl in the shower and thunderstorm pattern, partially associated with the tropical rainstorm that doused Louisiana from Wednesday to Thursday, may be recycled days later," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
This particular batch of thunderstorms may barely be recognizable as it blends in with existing showers and thunderstorms and travels toward the Ohio Valley through Sunday, then off the southern Atlantic coast early this week. From there, winds will guide this swirl, likely containing downpours and thunderstorms west along the northern Gulf.
"The area we are watching will be in a zone of higher wind shear (disruptive breezes) when compared to prior areas we have been watching in the northeast Gulf and along the southern Atlantic coast," DaSilva said. "The southern Atlantic area gave birth to Chantal earlier in July."
Moderate to high wind shear will limit the development of any tropical rainstorm that organizes over the northern Gulf. At this time, AccuWeather has assigned a low risk of tropical development for this week.
"The wind shear will also act as swift steering breezes, quickly taking any such fledgling feature westward across the Gulf with limited time for strengthening," DaSilva said. "Still, a center that tries to form over the open waters of the Gulf instead of bouncing along the upper Gulf coast would have better odds at developing."
The steering breezes could carry any moisture west toward Texas and bring at least some uptick in thunderstorm activity along the Texas coast for the middle and latter part of this week.
Farther north, under the core of the building heat dome, little to no thunderstorm activity is anticipated in areas such as northern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kansas.
Another zone being monitored for development is off the East Coast and into the open Atlantic during the same timeframe. This risk can stem from the same origins as the area in the northern Gulf, however, if this feature develops, it can become entangled with a cold front in the vicinity and is expected to track away from the United States.
There are also signs pointing towards tropical trouble in the open Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles early this week, however if this feature develops it is expected to encounter a high degree of wind shear as it approaches the Caribbean Sea which can limit any further intensification.
Should a tropical storm develop, the next name on the list for 2025 is Dexter.
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