Long-range outlook shows potential tropical storm forming later in May
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 11, 2022 1:20 PM EDT
|
Updated May 13, 2022 8:06 AM EDT
Meteorologists in the AccuWeather forecasting department are on alert for the possibility that a preseason tropical system could form later this month either over the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
From May 20-25, conditions may become favorable to support tropical formation, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, noting that one or two disturbances could travel across the Caribbean and may track northward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The key conditions that could set the stage for what could be the first named storm of the season are minimal amounts of wind shear and high ocean water temperatures.
"Wind shear is forecast to be relatively low in this zone past the middle of May and, from a climatological standpoint, the Caribbean to the southern Gulf is a prime area to watch for tropical development into June," Pastelok said.
When wind shear, the sudden increase in wind speed or change in direction of breezes, is low, waters are warm and plenty of moisture is available, a weak low-pressure area has a greater chance to evolve than if wind shear is high, dry air is present and waters are cool. And there is no shortage of warm water throughout this part of the Atlantic basin.
"Waters in this stretch from the Caribbean to the southern Gulf are some of the warmest in the entire basin and are up to a few degrees above average," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
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Water temperatures from the Caribbean to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico currently range from the low to mid-80s, which is well above the minimum threshold of 77 degrees for tropical development. One thing some parts of Florida could use, Pastelok pointed out, is some rainfall.
"Should a low-end tropical system develop and wander near Florida, non-flooding rainfall might not be a terrible thing," Pastelok said, adding, "portions of South Florida are in moderate to severe drought and there have been some troublesome fires of late," including a blaze that recently torched more than 23,000 acres in the Everglades.
Too much rain, however, could be problematic as well the potential impacts of increasing winds and rough surf from a stronger tropical system.
AccuWeather's long-range forecasting team, as well as AccuWeather's Tropical Team of Meteorologists headed by Hurricane Expert, Dan Kottlowski, have been sounding the alert for a preseason tropical storm to develop somewhere over the waters near Florida since early this year.
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, though a named storm has formed in the Atlantic basin during each of the last seven consecutive years, a trend that is one of the factors that prompted officials at the National Hurricane Center to consider moving up the official start of Atlantic hurricane season. Last year, Tropical Storm Ana formed on May 22, 2021.
This image taken on Wednesday, May 11, 2022, shows a couple of swirls in the clouds associated with multiple storm centers off the Atlantic coast of the southern United States. (GOES-East/NOAA)
The first name on deck for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is Alex and any storm that forms over the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf would be assigned that name. While the system lingering near the Southeast coast posed a small threat of becoming a named storm, it has since moved over land before development could occur.
AccuWeather forecasters had been monitoring the system for signs of development, but the window for a named storm to form quickly narrowed throughout this week.
Another well-above-average hurricane season is forecast for the Atlantic due largely to the lingering effects of La Niña, in which lingering cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific result in vast stretches of low wind shear over the Atlantic basin.
Elsewhere in the tropics, thousands of miles farther to the west, there has been some hint of possible tropical development well off the coast of Central America in the Eastern Pacific this weekend to early next week. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15 and such a tropical storm would be about right on cue. The first name on the list in the basin for 2022 is Agatha.
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News / Hurricane
Long-range outlook shows potential tropical storm forming later in May
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 11, 2022 1:20 PM EDT | Updated May 13, 2022 8:06 AM EDT
Meteorologists in the AccuWeather forecasting department are on alert for the possibility that a preseason tropical system could form later this month either over the northwest Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
From May 20-25, conditions may become favorable to support tropical formation, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, noting that one or two disturbances could travel across the Caribbean and may track northward toward the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The key conditions that could set the stage for what could be the first named storm of the season are minimal amounts of wind shear and high ocean water temperatures.
"Wind shear is forecast to be relatively low in this zone past the middle of May and, from a climatological standpoint, the Caribbean to the southern Gulf is a prime area to watch for tropical development into June," Pastelok said.
When wind shear, the sudden increase in wind speed or change in direction of breezes, is low, waters are warm and plenty of moisture is available, a weak low-pressure area has a greater chance to evolve than if wind shear is high, dry air is present and waters are cool. And there is no shortage of warm water throughout this part of the Atlantic basin.
"Waters in this stretch from the Caribbean to the southern Gulf are some of the warmest in the entire basin and are up to a few degrees above average," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
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Water temperatures from the Caribbean to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico currently range from the low to mid-80s, which is well above the minimum threshold of 77 degrees for tropical development. One thing some parts of Florida could use, Pastelok pointed out, is some rainfall.
"Should a low-end tropical system develop and wander near Florida, non-flooding rainfall might not be a terrible thing," Pastelok said, adding, "portions of South Florida are in moderate to severe drought and there have been some troublesome fires of late," including a blaze that recently torched more than 23,000 acres in the Everglades.
Too much rain, however, could be problematic as well the potential impacts of increasing winds and rough surf from a stronger tropical system.
AccuWeather's long-range forecasting team, as well as AccuWeather's Tropical Team of Meteorologists headed by Hurricane Expert, Dan Kottlowski, have been sounding the alert for a preseason tropical storm to develop somewhere over the waters near Florida since early this year.
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, though a named storm has formed in the Atlantic basin during each of the last seven consecutive years, a trend that is one of the factors that prompted officials at the National Hurricane Center to consider moving up the official start of Atlantic hurricane season. Last year, Tropical Storm Ana formed on May 22, 2021.
This image taken on Wednesday, May 11, 2022, shows a couple of swirls in the clouds associated with multiple storm centers off the Atlantic coast of the southern United States. (GOES-East/NOAA)
The first name on deck for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is Alex and any storm that forms over the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf would be assigned that name. While the system lingering near the Southeast coast posed a small threat of becoming a named storm, it has since moved over land before development could occur.
AccuWeather forecasters had been monitoring the system for signs of development, but the window for a named storm to form quickly narrowed throughout this week.
Another well-above-average hurricane season is forecast for the Atlantic due largely to the lingering effects of La Niña, in which lingering cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific result in vast stretches of low wind shear over the Atlantic basin.
Elsewhere in the tropics, thousands of miles farther to the west, there has been some hint of possible tropical development well off the coast of Central America in the Eastern Pacific this weekend to early next week. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15 and such a tropical storm would be about right on cue. The first name on the list in the basin for 2022 is Agatha.
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