Hawaii could face tropical storm threat in mid-August
An area of tropical interest may develop in the eastern Pacific and approach Hawaii by mid-August, bringing the risk of heavy rain, rough surf, flooding and damaging winds.
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno looks ahead to the month of August, the time of year when hurricane season begins ramping up. However, tropical activity has remained quiet due to dry air and wind shear.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a tropical disturbance that may develop in the eastern Pacific and could eventually approach Hawaii. The tropical threat comes amid a busy Pacific hurricane season linked to the strengthening El Niño.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific, which can last several months to more than a year and can vary in strength. El Niño typically favors above-average tropical activity in the eastern and central Pacific and tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic.
As El Niño continues to strengthen, the eastern Pacific remains active, with seven named storms, including two hurricanes, so far this season.
Of the two hurricanes, Genevieve reached Category 5 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, during the last week of July.
Only Fausto has crossed Hawaii’s longitude so far this season. The weakening tropical storm passed well north of the islands in late July, limiting its effects to increased waves and isolated showers.
After a lull during the first week of August, signs point to tropical activity increasing again in the eastern Pacific.
"We are monitoring two areas in the eastern Pacific for possible tropical development during the second week of August," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "One could encounter steering winds that guide it toward Hawaii."
AccuWeather meteorologists have identified Aug. 10-12 as the most likely window for the tropical wave to develop.
"If this wave develops, steering winds could bring impacts to Hawaii around Aug. 14-15," DaSilva said.
This image of the tropical eastern and central Pacific was captured on Thursday, Aug. 6, 2026. While multiple clusters of thunderstorms were present in tropical waters, none were yet showing aggressive signs of development. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
A tropical storm or hurricane could track close enough to Hawaii to produce dangerous seas and surf, heavy rain, flash flooding and locally damaging winds. Even without becoming a named storm, a strong tropical wave could increase trade winds and bring more frequent showers and thunderstorms to parts of the islands.
"At this stage, we will have to wait and see what transpires early in the second week of August," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather meteorologists currently assess a medium chance that the tropical wave will develop. The next named storm in the eastern Pacific will be Hernan.
"We are projecting 17-22 named storms in the eastern Pacific and four to seven in the central Pacific in 2026," DaSilva said. "Of those, nine to 13 could become hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and two to four in the central Pacific."
The eastern and central Pacific hurricane basins are divided at 140 degrees west longitude.
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