Florida in path of brewing tropical trouble next week
Residents and visitors in the Florida Peninsula and Keys, should monitor the progress of a budding tropical feature in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that could unload a foot or more of rain with major flooding.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warns of a new tropical threat brewing in the Gulf of Mexico that will put Florida at risk for even more rain and flooding after Helene.
The path of a brewing tropical feature over the southern Gulf of Mexico is almost certain to bring dangers and disruptions from heavy rain and flooding to the Florida Peninsula next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Meanwhile, mid-ocean powerful Hurricane Kirk may have eyes for Europe.
"While the exact track and intensity of the feature unfolding in the gulf have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time around," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, "At this time, the intensity will range from a sprawling tropical rainstorm to perhaps a strike from a more compact, full-blown hurricane."
Showers and thunderstorms are gathering from the western Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at midweek.
While the activity is still not organized, nearly every indicator suggests that a feature will form in the southwestern Gulf from late this weekend to the middle of next week and track northeastward and across the Florida Peninsula.
"Two main pieces of energy will likely combine to spur development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "One piece is heading westward from the Caribbean, and the other piece is associated with a tropical depression near Mexico in the eastern Pacific."
The consolidation process will be slow and likely to take several days.
"Should development take place in the southwestern gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is the time and potential for the feature to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane," DaSilva said.
Waters are sufficiently warm in the path of the storm and are generally in the mid-80s F along the way. The minimum tropical storm formation temperature is 78-80 degrees.
Wind shear from the southwestern to the southeastern and east-central part of the Gulf of Mexico will remain low relative to areas farther north. The belt of wind shear and a zone of high pressure that will move in across the south-central and mainland areas of the southeastern United States will prevent the storm from moving toward Texas or the southern Appalachians.
John Barkley of Treasure Island, Florida, spoke with AccuWeather on recovery efforts in his area after Hurricane Helene devastated the state. New tropical activity threatens the state once again.
Regardless of the intensity of the tropical feature, a swath of torrential downpours will douse Florida, especially the central and southern parts of the peninsula, next week. The rain is likely to fall over a several-day stretch unless a more condensed hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be focused over one day but could be intense.
The risk of flooding downpours will ramp up later this weekend and may persist into the middle of next week, depending on the intensity and forward speed of the feature. Many inches to a foot or more of rain may fall in some locations, with the biggest rainfall likely to be from Interstate 4 south to the Keys. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 30 inches for this setup.
Where a foot or more of rain falls, major urban flooding would result in a significant rise in the major rivers. Motorists should be prepared for inundated roads from torrential rain in cities such as Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Naples, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Fort Lauderdale.
A more intense tropical storm or hurricane would also bring impacts from storm surge and damaging wind. However, a mere tropical depression or storm is capable of causing major problems and dangerous conditions from torrential rainfall.
AccuWeather is providing this advanced information to assist with planning purposes for storm preparation and to provide a heads-up on potential ground, air and cruise travel problems and possible disruptions to utility services in the region.
Strengthening Kirk could go on to blast Europe
There are multiple storms in the Atlantic that AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking.
Hurricane Kirk is a Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the middle of the Atlantic. The hurricane experienced rapid intensification on Wednesday, going from 80 mph (Category 1) in the morning to 120 mph (Category 3) in the evening. Kirk represents a major threat to shipping interests, and its progress should be monitored by transatlantic operations and interests in the United Kingdom and the Europe mainland.
Kirk is expected to remain a Category 4 hurricane (130-156 mph), but there is a chance it reaches Category 5 intensity.
Kirk is likely to be a long-lived feature that may bring the impacts of a tropical wind and rainstorm to the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and western Europe in general by the middle of next week.
Large swells will propagate outward from Kirk and spread from the northeast-facing beaches in the Caribbean to the eastern U.S. this weekend in the form of building surf and dangerous rip currents. The same conditions will reach the west coast of Europe later this weekend to next week.
There is another budding tropical feature over the central Atlantic farther to the southwest of Kirk.
This strengthening system, which was upgraded to a tropical depression on Wednesday midday and Tropical Storm Leslie on Wednesday evening, is highly likely to become the Atlantic's next hurricane in the next couple of days and possibly a major (Category 3) hurricane. This feature is forecast to take a path farther to the west than Kirk but should still avoid the Caribbean Islands. Like Kirk, it will be a significant concern for trans-Atlantic shipping.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also tracking another feature farther west over the Atlantic that could develop and pester Bermuda with showers and thunderstorms during the latter part of this week.
Late next week, the feature slowly brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico may affect Bermuda after it crosses Florida.
After Leslie, the next names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Milton and Nadine.
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