Eta could strengthen back into a hurricane over open waters of Gulf
By
Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Nov 10, 2020 1:35 PM EDT
On Sunday night, Tropical Storm Eta made landfall on Lower Matecumbe Key, Florida, as a strong tropical storm. At landfall, Eta packed sustained winds of 65 mph, just 9 mph shy of a Category 1 hurricane strength (sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
This was Eta's third landfall, previously roaring ashore in Cuba on Sunday morning as a strong tropical storm and striking Nicaragua last week as a deadly Category 4 hurricane.
As the storm moves over the open waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, many of the hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been canceled, but residents along the Gulf Coast need to remain on alert for the potential of another landfall in the coming days.
As of 7 a.m. EST Tuesday, the storm was located about 60 miles north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with was a 10-mph increase from the 4 a.m. advisory. The storm was drifting to the south at 5 mph following little movement during part of Monday night.
This image, captured on Monday afternoon, Nov 9, 2020, shows that the center of Eta spinning over the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA/GOES-East)
Eta could reach Category 1 hurricane strength (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph) sometime during the middle days of the week as long as dry air avoids the core of the storm. With Eta now well away from Florida, conditions have improved significantly over South Florida following the deluge from Sunday to Monday. However, there will continue to be sporadic downpours due to the fringe effects from the storm through the middle of the week and beyond.
Prior to Eta, the Florida Keys and Peninsula have largely dodged impacts amid a historic Atlantic hurricane season, which has spawned a record-setting 29 named systems. Eta's landfall on the Florida Keys adds even more records to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Eta is the first tropical storm to make a November landfall in Florida since Tropical Storm Mitch in 1998, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist. Eta is also the record-breaking 12th named tropical system to strike the continental United States this hurricane season.
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Flooding from heavy rainfall has been significant in South Florida into Monday midday. From 10 to 16 inches of rain doused some locations, including Miramar, Florida, which measured 17.78 inches and Hollywood, Florida, which picked up 14.47 inches as of Tuesday morning. By Sunday night, the flooding in Fort Lauderdale was so dangerous, roads were indistinguishable from canals. The combination of a failed pump and torrential rain had some streets in Miami under water.
As of Monday morning, over 30,000 customers are without power in Florida, with a majority of those outages centered in Broward and Miami-Dade, according to PowerOutage.US. By early Tuesday morning, power outages were below 8,000.
Due to the storm, the City of Miami's COVID-19 Mobile Testing Unit (MTU) and Mobile Testing Unit Call Center was closed on Monday, Nov. 9. Operations are expected to resume on Tuesday, Nov. 10.
Above-normal water levels along the central and upper Atlantic coasts of Florida will be associated with an easterly wind from the ocean, far removed from Eta during the balance of this week.
"Due to a strong easterly (onshore) flow between Eta and a large high pressure area centered farther north over the mid-Atlantic states, minor coastal flooding and beach erosion can occur along the beaches of Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina around times of high tide," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Danny Pydynowski said.
Because of the combination of heavy, flooding rainfall, damaging winds, storm surge and a number of other economic factors, Eta was estimated to be a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Florida. The RealImpact™ Scale is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5. In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors.
The western part of Cuba will bear the brunt of Eta's heavy rainfall and gusty winds into the middle of the week, as the storm churns less than 100 miles offshore. Conditions are expected to improve later Wednesday as Eta drifts northward.
"Late in the week, a non-tropical storm moving through the eastern United States could draw Eta northward across the southern U.S.," Pydynowski said.
In this scenario, another U.S. landfall would be in play, this time somewhere along the central or upper Gulf Coast. The risk of landfall from a tropical depression or storm has been extended westward by AccuWeather meteorologists to include the Mississippi Panhandle and may be extended farther west to include southeastern Louisiana at some point.
"However, if Eta misses the connection with this non-tropical storm passing to its north, Eta may then remain in the Gulf of Mexico into the upcoming weekend. At that point, it is possible Eta could continue to meander in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps drifting slowly to the west or even to the south," Pydynowski said.
The storm may then sit and swirl over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for several days in this scenario.
There is also the possibility that Eta may slowly diminish over the Gulf of Mexico as more and more dry air is drawn into the circulation.
As a result of the possibilities that remain on the table with Eta's path this week, all interests from western Cuba to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the southeastern U.S. should closely monitor the forecast in the coming days.
Eta has already made history and matched the strength of the strongest storm of the tumultuous 2020 hurricane season -- Hurricane Laura -- when its winds peaked at 150 mph prior to slamming Central America earlier last week. Eta joined the ranks of eight other tropical systems in the Atlantic this season and underwent rapid strengthening, which is defined by a tropical system that experiences an increase in its maximum sustained winds by 35 mph within 24 hours. Its winds increased from 70 mph to 150 mph -- just shy of Category 5 strength -- in just 24 hours.
On Monday night, Subtropical Storm Theta joined Eta in the Atlantic, making it the latest in the calendar year that there were two storms swirling simultaneously in the basin since Nov. 10, 1932. Theta also became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, beating out the 2005 season and its 28 named storms.
"A second system could evolve over the Caribbean late this week to this weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Hurricane season doesn't officially end until Nov. 30.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Eta could strengthen back into a hurricane over open waters of Gulf
By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Nov 10, 2020 1:35 PM EDT
On Sunday night, Tropical Storm Eta made landfall on Lower Matecumbe Key, Florida, as a strong tropical storm. At landfall, Eta packed sustained winds of 65 mph, just 9 mph shy of a Category 1 hurricane strength (sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
This was Eta's third landfall, previously roaring ashore in Cuba on Sunday morning as a strong tropical storm and striking Nicaragua last week as a deadly Category 4 hurricane.
As the storm moves over the open waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, many of the hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been canceled, but residents along the Gulf Coast need to remain on alert for the potential of another landfall in the coming days.
As of 7 a.m. EST Tuesday, the storm was located about 60 miles north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with was a 10-mph increase from the 4 a.m. advisory. The storm was drifting to the south at 5 mph following little movement during part of Monday night.
This image, captured on Monday afternoon, Nov 9, 2020, shows that the center of Eta spinning over the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA/GOES-East)
Eta could reach Category 1 hurricane strength (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph) sometime during the middle days of the week as long as dry air avoids the core of the storm. With Eta now well away from Florida, conditions have improved significantly over South Florida following the deluge from Sunday to Monday. However, there will continue to be sporadic downpours due to the fringe effects from the storm through the middle of the week and beyond.
Prior to Eta, the Florida Keys and Peninsula have largely dodged impacts amid a historic Atlantic hurricane season, which has spawned a record-setting 29 named systems. Eta's landfall on the Florida Keys adds even more records to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Eta is the first tropical storm to make a November landfall in Florida since Tropical Storm Mitch in 1998, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist. Eta is also the record-breaking 12th named tropical system to strike the continental United States this hurricane season.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Flooding from heavy rainfall has been significant in South Florida into Monday midday. From 10 to 16 inches of rain doused some locations, including Miramar, Florida, which measured 17.78 inches and Hollywood, Florida, which picked up 14.47 inches as of Tuesday morning. By Sunday night, the flooding in Fort Lauderdale was so dangerous, roads were indistinguishable from canals. The combination of a failed pump and torrential rain had some streets in Miami under water.
As of Monday morning, over 30,000 customers are without power in Florida, with a majority of those outages centered in Broward and Miami-Dade, according to PowerOutage.US. By early Tuesday morning, power outages were below 8,000.
Due to the storm, the City of Miami's COVID-19 Mobile Testing Unit (MTU) and Mobile Testing Unit Call Center was closed on Monday, Nov. 9. Operations are expected to resume on Tuesday, Nov. 10.
Above-normal water levels along the central and upper Atlantic coasts of Florida will be associated with an easterly wind from the ocean, far removed from Eta during the balance of this week.
"Due to a strong easterly (onshore) flow between Eta and a large high pressure area centered farther north over the mid-Atlantic states, minor coastal flooding and beach erosion can occur along the beaches of Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina around times of high tide," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Danny Pydynowski said.
Because of the combination of heavy, flooding rainfall, damaging winds, storm surge and a number of other economic factors, Eta was estimated to be a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Florida. The RealImpact™ Scale is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5. In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors.
The western part of Cuba will bear the brunt of Eta's heavy rainfall and gusty winds into the middle of the week, as the storm churns less than 100 miles offshore. Conditions are expected to improve later Wednesday as Eta drifts northward.
"Late in the week, a non-tropical storm moving through the eastern United States could draw Eta northward across the southern U.S.," Pydynowski said.
In this scenario, another U.S. landfall would be in play, this time somewhere along the central or upper Gulf Coast. The risk of landfall from a tropical depression or storm has been extended westward by AccuWeather meteorologists to include the Mississippi Panhandle and may be extended farther west to include southeastern Louisiana at some point.
"However, if Eta misses the connection with this non-tropical storm passing to its north, Eta may then remain in the Gulf of Mexico into the upcoming weekend. At that point, it is possible Eta could continue to meander in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, perhaps drifting slowly to the west or even to the south," Pydynowski said.
Related:
The storm may then sit and swirl over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico for several days in this scenario.
There is also the possibility that Eta may slowly diminish over the Gulf of Mexico as more and more dry air is drawn into the circulation.
As a result of the possibilities that remain on the table with Eta's path this week, all interests from western Cuba to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the southeastern U.S. should closely monitor the forecast in the coming days.
Eta has already made history and matched the strength of the strongest storm of the tumultuous 2020 hurricane season -- Hurricane Laura -- when its winds peaked at 150 mph prior to slamming Central America earlier last week. Eta joined the ranks of eight other tropical systems in the Atlantic this season and underwent rapid strengthening, which is defined by a tropical system that experiences an increase in its maximum sustained winds by 35 mph within 24 hours. Its winds increased from 70 mph to 150 mph -- just shy of Category 5 strength -- in just 24 hours.
On Monday night, Subtropical Storm Theta joined Eta in the Atlantic, making it the latest in the calendar year that there were two storms swirling simultaneously in the basin since Nov. 10, 1932. Theta also became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, beating out the 2005 season and its 28 named storms.
"A second system could evolve over the Caribbean late this week to this weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Hurricane season doesn't officially end until Nov. 30.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo