Ernesto crosses Bermuda, to eye Newfoundland next
Ernesto will continue advance beyond Bermuda on Sunday, prior to brushing part of Atlantic Canada early this coming week with gusty winds and drenching rain.
Strong winds, storm surge and wind continued to strengthen as Hurricane Ernesto hit Bermuda early Aug. 17 as a Category 1 storm.
After causing significant damage and widespread, long-lasting power outages in Puerto Rico and the United States and British Virgin Islands last week, Ernesto, as a hurricane, made landfall on the island chain of Bermuda early Saturday morning, bringing similar impacts. Beyond Bermuda, Ernesto will take a swipe at Atlantic Canada early this week, before approaching the United Kingdom just after midweek, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
At 11 p.m. EDT, Thursday, Ernesto strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. At 5 a.m. Saturday, Ernesto tracked right across the islands of Bermuda with 85-mph maximum sustained winds as a Category 1 hurricane.
By 11 a.m. Saturday, Ernesto was moving away from Bermuda at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds down to 80 mph. Gusty winds, squally showers, rough seas and surf and the risk of tornadoes and waterspouts lingered in the hurricane's wake.
Midday Saturday, there were more than 26,000 utility customers without power across Bermuda, according to Bermuda Electric Company. By Sunday morning, the number of outages dropped to roughly 14,000. The islands have a population of around 65,000. Gusts reached 84 mph at Bermuda Naval Air Station with a peak gust of 109 mph on the eastern tip of Bermuda.
Ernesto ingested some dry air at midweek, which had previously resulted in a gradual strengthening process, rather than rapid intensification, for the second half of the week. The hurricane will continue to move over waters that are not as warm as the Caribbean, with a continuing trend of lowering wind intensity expected.
As predicted by AccuWeather meteorologists, Ernesto has slowed its forward speed over the waters surrounding Bermuda. This trend is expected to persist much of the weekend, which could significantly increase damaging and dangerous impacts by causing hurricane conditions to last several hours.
Ernesto crosses Bermuda
Bands of rain and wind directly associated with Ernesto began to pummel the islands on Friday afternoon and evening, following non-Ernesto rain earlier in the week. While many of the structures on the Bermuda islands are made of stone and can withstand a formidable hurricane, power outages have occurred as a result of Ernesto.
Cruise, shipping and fishing interests should closely monitor the track and intensity of Ernesto as it spins northward over the Atlantic. Even as Ernesto tracks farther north of Bermuda, it is strongly recommended that small craft remain secured in port with rough seas still possible in the vicinity.
Ernesto brought heavy rainfall to the islands of Bermuda over the last day or so. The rain was intense enough to cause urban flooding and wash rocks and other debris onto roads that pass through the small hills.
Because rainwater is captured and used for drinking and other purposes on the islands, non-flooding rainfall is generally welcome. Rainfall will be given a boost by the proximity of a non-tropical storm system nearby before Ernesto's arrival.
Rain from Ernesto is likely to rank with the biggest deluges from tropical features. The record amount of rainfall for any August in Bermuda is 14.09 inches set in 2014, which ironically did not have any direct impacts from tropical systems.
Bermuda is no stranger to tropical storms. Since the mid-1800s, there have been 45 tropical cyclones of at least tropical storm intensity that have passed within 25 miles of the islands.
Ernesto to have close encounter with Atlantic Canada
After Ernesto's encounter with Bermuda this weekend, the next stop for the hurricane will be the waters near Atlantic Canada. Even though the region is hit frequently in the winter months by powerful nor'easters, Ernesto could bring significant problems to the region.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Canada is a 1.
"Ernesto could come close to the island of Newfoundland, Canada, early this week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
A dip in the jet stream will be sharp enough to pull Ernesto on a more westerly path for a time, and that could be enough to cause landfall in Atlantic Canada.
"At this time, we believe Ernesto will be taking a north-northeast path as it approaches Atlantic Canada early this week, and that brings up the possibility of a landfall in Newfoundland," DaSilva said.
Because of the highly variable shape of the coastline in Atlantic Canada and the increasing forward speed of Ernesto early next week, pinpointing the exact landfall time and location poses a challenge, if the track is close enough. At this time, any landfall could occur as early as late Sunday night to late Monday in Atlantic Canada.
While waters trend progressively cooler north of Bermuda, they are warm enough to sustain a quick-moving hurricane like Ernesto. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 100 mph are likely in the southern part of Newfoundland.
AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Ernesto and the jet stream dip will remain separate entities. Because of this, rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 8 inches near and north of where the center rolls ashore. Rainfall of this intensity would lead to flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts.
However, should Ernesto and the jet stream merge over Atlantic Canada, rainfall could increase exponentially, and a widespread major flooding event might unfold with significant risk to lives and property.
Even though Ernesto poses no direct threat to the United States mainland at this time, it will bring building seas and rough surf with increasing rip currents along the Atlantic beaches this week and weekend.
Beyond Atlantic Canada, Ernesto, as a tropical wind and rainstorm, is forecast to affect the British Isles from later Wednesday to Thursday. Travel disruptions, flooding rainfall and power outages are possible.
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
AccuWeather meteorologists say that a super-charged Atlantic hurricane season will unfold this year with a large number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Some storms are likely to undergo rapid intensification due largely to the ongoing higher-than-historical average water temperatures.
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