Multiple Atlantic systems may vie for next tropical storm of 2022 hurricane season
Roslyn left behind a mess in Mexico after making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Santa Cruz, Nayarit, on Oct. 23.
A developing tropical system near Bermuda is running out of time to become the next named storm in the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather meteorologists say. But even if this area of interest doesn’t organize into a tropical storm, there are several other areas of interest that are being closely monitored.
The system is in a zone that extends from the central and western Atlantic to the Caribbean that AccuWeather meteorologists have had their eye on for potential tropical development in late October.
Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center dubbed the system Invest 94L to more closely monitor the system for development in the short term.
Because of the risk for locally heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas in Bermuda into Tuesday, AccuWeather is referring to the system as a tropical rainstorm. The system is likely to graze New England.
Non-tropical systems of this nature occasionally can evolve into tropical or subtropical storms if they hang around long enough. Over time, energy can spin down to the lower, more tropical part of the atmosphere. This particular system has been hovering in waters east of Bermuda since last week.
The next name on the list that meteorologists are using to name tropical storms for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is Lisa.
Satellite images during the daylight revealed that a low-level center was trying to form. However, part of that center remained free of clouds early on Monday. Since then, a considerable amount of dry air has been drawn into the center of the system and chances for it to become a tropical depression or storm were diminishing.
On this image captured on Monday, Oct. 24, 2022, a swirl of clouds associated with thunderstorms can be seen near Bermuda (center). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite).
"There is still some time for the system to develop, but if it has not done so by Tuesday night, it has probably missed its chance as the system will be traveling over progressively cooler waters," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
The realm of possibilities for this system range from a depression or subtropical depression to a tropical storm or subtropical storm. A depression has sustained winds around a center of circulation under 39 mph. Once those winds reach 39 mph or greater, the system is classified as a tropical storm. A subtropical depression or storm has some tropical characteristics and some non-tropical characteristics.
This storm could have been at the subtropical stage for a brief time on Monday.
Steering breezes would tend to cause the system and its bands of showers and thunderstorms to track over Bermuda and in waters to the north of the islands through the first half of this week. Swimmers and boaters will notice an uptick in wave action. Conditions can become hazardous as a result.
The system is not likely to strengthen enough to be of great concern to the United States. However, the center could track only about 100 miles to the east of New England. Showers and thunderstorms extend out hundreds of miles to the northwest, north and northeast of the center.
Some drenching showers and thunderstorms with stiff winds from the sprawled-out system are likely to get close enough to affect eastern Massachusetts on Tuesday night and early Wednesday and in eastern Maine with locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding from Wednesday to Wednesday evening before pushing into Atlantic Canada during the second half of the week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is an area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas, which is similar in nature to the system near Bermuda, that bears watching for gradual tropical development for the middle and latter part of this week.
As steering breezes shift later this week, it is possible for that system to wander close to Bermuda as well.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been keeping an eye on the potential for a tropical disturbance to organize and strengthen in the Caribbean during the days ahead. This disturbance is part of a train of tropical waves that originate from Africa during the hurricane season.
The time frame for development would be at the tail end of October and the first several days of November. Should the system remain poorly organized, it is more likely to travel westward across the Caribbean as a zone of drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms. However, should the system organize quickly as it enters the eastern Caribbean, it could strengthen significantly, turn more to the north and threaten some of the Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
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