Atlantic hurricane season off the charts already
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul 5, 2021 3:29 AM EST
Videos from social media show the destructive force of Hurricane Elsa as it swept across Barbados on July 2.
Elsa became the first hurricane of the 2021 tropical season on Friday morning, just one day after it became the fifth storm of the season -- nearly two months ahead of the normal pace for the basin.
The storm strengthened into a hurricane just west of the Caribbean island of Barbados, then weakened back to a tropical storm on Saturday. When Elsa first was named about halfway between the Leeward Islands and the coast of Africa early Thursday morning, July 1. It beat out Tropical Storm Edouard from 2020 for the title of earliest E-storm to form in the Atlantic. For comparison, Edouard formed July 6, 2020.
The record pace of the season so far is reminiscent of the hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which spawned more storms than any other season on record with a total of 30 named storms. The United States also endured a record 11 landfalling storms in one season. Louisiana bore the brunt and dealt with five named storms striking land.
The system that became Elsa is part of a long series of similar features that roll westward from Africa across the Atlantic and often cross into the eastern Pacific. A small fraction of these tropical waves, as meteorologists refer to them, go on to strengthen into tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes under the right atmospheric conditions.
The 2021 season is forecast to fall short of the number of named systems from 2020. However, AccuWeather forecasters say that to have a significant amount of tropical disturbances that are originating from Africa this early is a concern.
Usually, the first strong candidate for a tropical system from this area emerges during August rather than late June or early July. There have already been a few other disturbances in this zone that AccuWeather forecasters monitored for development in June, but none of them, prior to Elsa, became organized enough to be named.
The tropical disturbances that originate from Africa are also referred to as Cabo Verde systems, named for a group of islands just off the coast of the continent. Cabo Verde systems constitute the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season with multiple tropical storm and hurricane candidates typically emerging in the months of August, September and October. Most of the small number of systems that develop prior to this time of the year originate in waters close to Central and North America and are often called "homebrew" storms.
Since these long-track disturbances tend to spend more time over water, they tend to have more time to organize, develop a circulation and strengthen, when compared to homebrew storms. Because of that, they could potentially pose a more significant threat to lives and property as they approach land areas.
The formation of a named tropical system or two is not highly unusual by late June, but on average, the second named storm does not brew until early August, according to the NHC. To have five such systems by early July set a new record. The average date for the fifth storm to form is Aug. 31.
The frenetic pace of the 2020 season can be visualized on the map above, which depicts the tracks of all of the season's named storms. (AccuWeather)
Last year, Dolly missed the record for the earliest fourth-named storm, or D-storm, by just a few days. In 2016, Danielle formed on June 20, and Dolly formed three days later in 2020 on June 23. This year's Tropical Storm Danny formed on June 28.
Every storm after Dolly last year set an early-formation record. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the busiest on record and required the use of the Greek alphabet, once the last name and letter "W" on the list was used up. That was the second and last time the NHC will tap into Greek letters to name storms that extend beyond the original designated list.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 16-20 named systems for the Atlantic basin for the 2021 season with seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five direct impacts on the U.S. Both Danny from June 28-29 and Claudette from June 19-23 tracked over the Southeastern states.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Atlantic hurricane season off the charts already
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul 5, 2021 3:29 AM EST
Videos from social media show the destructive force of Hurricane Elsa as it swept across Barbados on July 2.
Elsa became the first hurricane of the 2021 tropical season on Friday morning, just one day after it became the fifth storm of the season -- nearly two months ahead of the normal pace for the basin.
The storm strengthened into a hurricane just west of the Caribbean island of Barbados, then weakened back to a tropical storm on Saturday. When Elsa first was named about halfway between the Leeward Islands and the coast of Africa early Thursday morning, July 1. It beat out Tropical Storm Edouard from 2020 for the title of earliest E-storm to form in the Atlantic. For comparison, Edouard formed July 6, 2020.
The record pace of the season so far is reminiscent of the hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which spawned more storms than any other season on record with a total of 30 named storms. The United States also endured a record 11 landfalling storms in one season. Louisiana bore the brunt and dealt with five named storms striking land.
The system that became Elsa is part of a long series of similar features that roll westward from Africa across the Atlantic and often cross into the eastern Pacific. A small fraction of these tropical waves, as meteorologists refer to them, go on to strengthen into tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes under the right atmospheric conditions.
The 2021 season is forecast to fall short of the number of named systems from 2020. However, AccuWeather forecasters say that to have a significant amount of tropical disturbances that are originating from Africa this early is a concern.
Usually, the first strong candidate for a tropical system from this area emerges during August rather than late June or early July. There have already been a few other disturbances in this zone that AccuWeather forecasters monitored for development in June, but none of them, prior to Elsa, became organized enough to be named.
The tropical disturbances that originate from Africa are also referred to as Cabo Verde systems, named for a group of islands just off the coast of the continent. Cabo Verde systems constitute the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season with multiple tropical storm and hurricane candidates typically emerging in the months of August, September and October. Most of the small number of systems that develop prior to this time of the year originate in waters close to Central and North America and are often called "homebrew" storms.
Since these long-track disturbances tend to spend more time over water, they tend to have more time to organize, develop a circulation and strengthen, when compared to homebrew storms. Because of that, they could potentially pose a more significant threat to lives and property as they approach land areas.
The formation of a named tropical system or two is not highly unusual by late June, but on average, the second named storm does not brew until early August, according to the NHC. To have five such systems by early July set a new record. The average date for the fifth storm to form is Aug. 31.
The frenetic pace of the 2020 season can be visualized on the map above, which depicts the tracks of all of the season's named storms. (AccuWeather)
Last year, Dolly missed the record for the earliest fourth-named storm, or D-storm, by just a few days. In 2016, Danielle formed on June 20, and Dolly formed three days later in 2020 on June 23. This year's Tropical Storm Danny formed on June 28.
Every storm after Dolly last year set an early-formation record. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the busiest on record and required the use of the Greek alphabet, once the last name and letter "W" on the list was used up. That was the second and last time the NHC will tap into Greek letters to name storms that extend beyond the original designated list.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 16-20 named systems for the Atlantic basin for the 2021 season with seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five direct impacts on the U.S. Both Danny from June 28-29 and Claudette from June 19-23 tracked over the Southeastern states.
Related:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo