Atlantic Basin heating up as Gulf of Mexico shows signs of tropical activity
The time to prepare for the 2021 Hurricane Season is now along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
By
Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Jun 14, 2021 1:32 PM EST
At least 95 homes were damaged and 90 roads affected by flooding following severe storms in northern Mississippi from June 9-10.
The time to prepare for the 2021 Hurricane Season is now along the U.S. Gulf Coast, as AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather near the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, as well as a newly-formed tropical depression of the North Carolina coast.
Through the week, the potential exists for the Atlantic Basin's second and third named storms of the season to form as conditions become conducive for tropical development. The next names on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season list are Bill and Claudette.
With the atmospheric wheels already turning off the U.S. Atlantic coast, Tropical Depression Two is the most likely to gather the name Tropical Storm Bill. This feature is not forecast to be a threat to the U.S., but rather speed off to the northeast before cold water causes it to weaken. Some rain from the budding storm may brush Nova Scotia.
There continues to remain a lot of unknowns in regards to the magnitude of strengthening and the exact track of the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche.
With the expected window for any potential landfall in the United States still nearly a week away, a lot can happen between now and then.
One major hindrance in limiting forecast confidence at this time continues to be the lack of a well-defined low-level circulation. At this point in time, a broad area of shifting winds across the Bay of Campeche has kept the tropical entity disorganized.
Conditions are expected to change, however, as a window for further organization and strengthening exists later this week in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Hence why AccuWeather's expert team of meteorologists is urging residents along the Gulf Coast to prepare and plan now while there remains plenty of time prior to any impactful weather late week.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been cautioning about development toward mid-June in the western Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean, as well as the feature now off the Atlantic coast since the start of the month.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"With at least marginally favorable environmental conditions expected, there is a medium chance for tropical development in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Water temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico range from the low to middle 80s, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical system. A typical threshold for development is considered to be around 80 degrees Fahrenheit, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
Wind shear is commonly an inhibiting factor for tropical development and that will likely be the case across the Gulf of Mexico this week. A light-to-moderate southwesterly breeze in the upper levels of the atmosphere will limit the area of disturbed weather from organizing. The wind shear in place can also shift concentrated areas of rain and thunderstorms away from the center of circulation. This is common in early-season tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
However, the potential exists later on this week for a brief window of relaxed wind shear across the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly providing a narrow time frame conducive for intensification.
Given the near-term uncertainties, residents from coastal Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and even the Florida Panhandle need to remain alert for at least a surge of tropical moisture, if not a tropical depression or tropical storm this upcoming weekend.
Some of those places have been hit hard with torrential rain and flooding in recent weeks. Some communities, like Victoria, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, have been soaked by around 2 feet of rain since May 1.
Regardless of the extent of tropical development, concerns for another round of flooding rainfall will likely increase as tropical moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Even if nothing more than a poorly organized, weak tropical feature were to form, seas and surf can build and a plume of drenching showers and thunderstorms may expand northward and perhaps westward along the Gulf Coast.
The Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream waters off the Atlantic coast are not the only features being monitored for the balance of June.
Other disturbances are being watched over the Atlantic. These include a feature in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea and another that emerged off the coast of Africa over this past weekend.
"We also continue to watch a broad area of rotation across southern Mexico, known as a gyre, that is producing clusters of rain and thunderstorms extending from near the southern coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific into the southern Gulf of Mexico. As thunderstorms continue to develop across this region through the course of the week," Douty said.
The gyre in place over Mexico could also spawn tropical activity in the eastern Pacific basin this week as well. One focused area of disturbed weather has been given a low chance for development along the southern Mexico coastline this week.
"Regardless of tropical development, this feature can bring heavy rain and the threat for flooding across southern Mexico through the middle of the week," Douty added.
Well out to sea off of the western coast of Mexico, Tropical Storm Carlos is also churning in the eastern Pacific basin. Aside from rough seas in the vicinity of the storm potentially impacting shipping routes, no major impactful weather to land is expected as it slowly meanders over open water and weakens this week.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Atlantic Basin heating up as Gulf of Mexico shows signs of tropical activity
The time to prepare for the 2021 Hurricane Season is now along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Jun 14, 2021 1:32 PM EST
At least 95 homes were damaged and 90 roads affected by flooding following severe storms in northern Mississippi from June 9-10.
The time to prepare for the 2021 Hurricane Season is now along the U.S. Gulf Coast, as AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather near the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, as well as a newly-formed tropical depression of the North Carolina coast.
Through the week, the potential exists for the Atlantic Basin's second and third named storms of the season to form as conditions become conducive for tropical development. The next names on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season list are Bill and Claudette.
With the atmospheric wheels already turning off the U.S. Atlantic coast, Tropical Depression Two is the most likely to gather the name Tropical Storm Bill. This feature is not forecast to be a threat to the U.S., but rather speed off to the northeast before cold water causes it to weaken. Some rain from the budding storm may brush Nova Scotia.
There continues to remain a lot of unknowns in regards to the magnitude of strengthening and the exact track of the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche.
With the expected window for any potential landfall in the United States still nearly a week away, a lot can happen between now and then.
One major hindrance in limiting forecast confidence at this time continues to be the lack of a well-defined low-level circulation. At this point in time, a broad area of shifting winds across the Bay of Campeche has kept the tropical entity disorganized.
Conditions are expected to change, however, as a window for further organization and strengthening exists later this week in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Hence why AccuWeather's expert team of meteorologists is urging residents along the Gulf Coast to prepare and plan now while there remains plenty of time prior to any impactful weather late week.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been cautioning about development toward mid-June in the western Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean, as well as the feature now off the Atlantic coast since the start of the month.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"With at least marginally favorable environmental conditions expected, there is a medium chance for tropical development in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Water temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico range from the low to middle 80s, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical system. A typical threshold for development is considered to be around 80 degrees Fahrenheit, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
Wind shear is commonly an inhibiting factor for tropical development and that will likely be the case across the Gulf of Mexico this week. A light-to-moderate southwesterly breeze in the upper levels of the atmosphere will limit the area of disturbed weather from organizing. The wind shear in place can also shift concentrated areas of rain and thunderstorms away from the center of circulation. This is common in early-season tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
However, the potential exists later on this week for a brief window of relaxed wind shear across the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly providing a narrow time frame conducive for intensification.
Given the near-term uncertainties, residents from coastal Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and even the Florida Panhandle need to remain alert for at least a surge of tropical moisture, if not a tropical depression or tropical storm this upcoming weekend.
Some of those places have been hit hard with torrential rain and flooding in recent weeks. Some communities, like Victoria, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, have been soaked by around 2 feet of rain since May 1.
Regardless of the extent of tropical development, concerns for another round of flooding rainfall will likely increase as tropical moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Even if nothing more than a poorly organized, weak tropical feature were to form, seas and surf can build and a plume of drenching showers and thunderstorms may expand northward and perhaps westward along the Gulf Coast.
The Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream waters off the Atlantic coast are not the only features being monitored for the balance of June.
Other disturbances are being watched over the Atlantic. These include a feature in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea and another that emerged off the coast of Africa over this past weekend.
"We also continue to watch a broad area of rotation across southern Mexico, known as a gyre, that is producing clusters of rain and thunderstorms extending from near the southern coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific into the southern Gulf of Mexico. As thunderstorms continue to develop across this region through the course of the week," Douty said.
The gyre in place over Mexico could also spawn tropical activity in the eastern Pacific basin this week as well. One focused area of disturbed weather has been given a low chance for development along the southern Mexico coastline this week.
"Regardless of tropical development, this feature can bring heavy rain and the threat for flooding across southern Mexico through the middle of the week," Douty added.
Well out to sea off of the western coast of Mexico, Tropical Storm Carlos is also churning in the eastern Pacific basin. Aside from rough seas in the vicinity of the storm potentially impacting shipping routes, no major impactful weather to land is expected as it slowly meanders over open water and weakens this week.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo