Another tropical storm could brew in the Atlantic
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the Atlantic Ocean for more tropical development in the coming week.
After a fairly quiet month across the tropics, AccuWeather meteorologists say an uptick in tropical development is on the horizon.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that the active streak of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean could continue, with another system possible before the end of the month.
With four named tropical systems already this season, 2023 is looking to begin at a faster-than-normal pace. On average, the fourth named tropical storm of the season usually occurs around Aug. 15, which is still more than three weeks away.
Don, located over the middle of the ocean, strengthened into the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season on Saturday, ahead of schedule. On average, the first hurricane of the season forms around Aug. 11, according to NOAA.
As AccuWeather forecasters stated last week, additional tropical development is possible during the final days of July and the first week of August.
"A weak area of low pressure moving across the tropical Atlantic will have to be monitored for development over the next few days as it tracks to the west toward the Lesser Antilles," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty, noting that dry air and moderate amounts of wind shear were inhibiting development early this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists are giving this tropical wave a low chance for development through Tuesday. Should this tropical system strengthen into a tropical storm, with sustained winds in excess of 39 mph, it would be given the name Emily.
Whether or not the system strengthens, many of the eastern Caribbean islands, from Barbados and Martinique to St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines can expect an uptick in rainfall through the middle of the week with locally heavy downpours.
"This system has the potential to bring flooding rainfall to some of the islands [in the Caribbean]," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. "This system may never gather a name, but it will create big impacts to the islands including gale-force wind gusts and probably more rainfall than what occurred with Bret earlier this season."
"Once this system gets into the Caribbean Sea, conditions for development look even less favorable, which should end the development threat altogether," Douty explained.
The presence of both dry air and strong wind shear, or disruptive winds that change in direction and speed higher up in the atmosphere, will make conditions in the Caribbean Sea rather hostile for tropical development.
If an organized tropical system were to develop east of the Leeward Islands, it is likely that the storm would lose wind intensity once it crosses into the Caribbean. If no tropical depression or storm develops prior to reaching the islands, it's unlikely to develop at all.
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Several other tropical waves are expected to push off the coast of Africa and trek across the Atlantic Ocean through the middle of this week. Development cannot be ruled out entirely, though any tropical wave will have to avoid wind shear and dry air in order to become a named tropical system.
However, looking into next week, as the calendar turns from July to August, AccuWeather meteorologists say there is a greater potential for tropical systems to develop in the Atlantic.
"Later this week and into next week, wind shear across the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean is expected to lessen, increasing the chances for tropical development," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Just last year, there were no named storms in the Atlantic during the entire month of August for the first time in 25 years.
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