After a mid-season tropical lull, development may be on the horizon in multiple areas
This Labor Day holiday turned out to be one of the rare occasions that there is not a named storm in the Atlantic basin. Through the week, however, forecasters say that tropical activity may begin to ramp up.
AccuWeather forecasters are keeping an eye on multiple potential tropical systems across the Atlantic.
Tropical activity is ramping back up across the Atlantic basin, and AccuWeather hurricane experts are monitoring multiple areas that have a chance of tropical development during the first part of September.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching, falling on Sept. 10. During this time, forecasters say that conditions are typically ideal for the development of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. By this point in the season, the ocean has had plenty of time to heat up, resulting in higher chances for the development of storms.
Labor Day weekend is typically one of the busiest times in the tropics, but this year, there were no named storms across the basin. This is the first time in 27 years that not a single named tropical storm has developed in the basin between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.
Because of the extended lull in activity, AccuWeather's hurricane experts have lowered their initial prediction of named storms and hurricanes for the 2024 Atlantic season.
"We have made modifications to lower our forecast for the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes for the Atlantic Hurricane Season--the first known source to do so--building on the announcement we made last week saying such a reduction might be coming," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
AccuWeather is now predicting 16-20 named storms, above the historical average of 14 named storms in the Atlantic basin. The current forecast includes 6-10 hurricanes and 4-6 direct impacts to the United States.
This does not mean there can't be time periods when multiple named storms exist simultaneously. There is also still the likelihood that some storms will undergo rapid intensification, which can be especially dangerous near coastal populated areas.
Along with areas of interest near the U.S. coast, numerous tropical waves advancing westward from the coast of Africa across the Atlantic will heighten the chances for development, given the primed conditions and lack of Saharan dust over the region. However, over the next week or so, one important factor will pose a challenge for any developing tropical features.
"While there has been a reduction in dry and dusty air across the Atlantic Basin over the last week, there continues to be near- to above-average amounts of wind shear across much of the basin," explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
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DaSilva added that this wind shear is helping to prevent any quick organization of the tropical waves that are moving off of Africa. A reduction of this wind shear is forecast toward the middle of the month which can allow for things to get much more active.
Forecasters say that a La Niña pattern projected to emerge from September to November will also help to promote lower levels of wind shear across the Atlantic.
"The transition toward La Niña has been slow, and as a result slightly higher than average wind shear across the Atlantic has helped to limit tropical development," noted DaSilva.
There are two areas AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring in waters close to the U.S. this week.
“Currently, an area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has a low chance of evolving into a tropical depression or named tropical storm from Wednesday to Friday,” DaSilva said, "We have begun to refer to this system as a tropical rainstorm to raise awareness of its imminent impacts due to heavy rain along the Gulf Coast states."
Another area of interest has a low chance of tropical development from Wednesday to Friday up to a few hundred miles to the east of the Carolinas, over the western Atlantic. Regardless of this system's future organization, it will send locally heavy rain into part of Atlantic Canada by this weekend.
Caribbean countries on alert
Over the course of the week, a tropical wave will shift into the Caribbean Sea and usher in persistent downpours across portions of the Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.
"A tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles will need to be monitored for development as it moves across the Caribbean this week and into the start of the weekend. Conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for development later this week and as a result this tropical wave will need to be watched closely as we approach the peak of the hurricane season," highlighted DaSilva.
The latest indications show winds will pilot this wave from the Caribbean waters into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in the Gulf should closely monitor the progress of this upcoming feature.
Any feature that forms within this corridor has a decent chance of strengthening over the warm Caribbean and Gulf waters.
"Water temperatures and ocean heat content levels remain at near-record levels across the Atlantic, potentially allowing for the rapid intensification of any named storm that forms," noted DaSilva.
The next storm name for the Atlantic basin will be Francine.
As hurricane experts continue to monitor these zones for development over the next week or two, they say that tropical downpours will be the theme across the region regardless. Even pockets of rough seas will be probable as clusters of rain and thunderstorms ramp up across the Atlantic.
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