Hurricane forecast update following rare storm-free Labor Day weekend
For the first time in 27 years, September is starting with an extended lull in tropical activity. But forecasters are warning not to let your guard down with more U.S. impacts expected this season.
AccuWeather’s Jon Porter was live on the AccuWeather Network on Sept. 4 to discuss how quiet the last few weeks have been in the tropics.
Following an unusual August with limited tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades, AccuWeather is reducing its forecast for the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather is now predicting:
•16-20 named storms
•6-10 hurricanes
•3-6 major hurricanes
•4-6 direct impacts to the United States
The forecast of 16-20 named storms is still above the historical average of 14 named storms.
"[This] update is based on such constant scrutiny of our seasonal hurricane forecast. Our team has been integrating the latest data and insights, while monitoring the unusual conditions that have hampered the development of tropical storms and hurricanes last month,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explained.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva says it is very uncommon not to have a named storm in the Atlantic basin over the Labor Day holiday weekend. The last time there was not a tropical storm between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2 was in 1997.
Why has there been a lull in the hurricane season?
Despite the widespread warm water across the basin, an abundance of dry air, dust from the Saharan Desert and disruptive winds have hampered tropical development. “We’re also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the western coast of Africa,” DaSilva said, adding that it is interfering with the showers and thunderstorms that commonly go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes.
“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total. We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation," Porter warned.
Several major records have already been shattered this hurricane season. Beryl was the earliest major hurricane on record to form east of the Lesser Antilles in June. Beryl was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form and the fastest-moving Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin.
Category 5 Hurricane Beryl early on the morning of July 2, 2024.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and it officially ends on Nov. 30.
Porter says tropical threats could extend through November and possibly into December this year, due in part to extremely warm water temperatures.
“Some of the factors AccuWeather experts have identified as limiting the number of tropical storms and hurricanes thus far this season are not yet fully understood by anyone from a science, predictability, and forecast skill perspective," Porter explained. "As always, AccuWeather remains committed to ensuring you have the most accurate and up-to-date forecasts.”
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