Melissa, future nor'easter to team up along US East Coast next week
When Melissa departs the Caribbean later next week, it may contribute to stormy conditions along much of the United States East Coast with a new round of rough surf and beach erosion in some areas.
Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane over the weekend and could end up being one of the strongest of the season.
Melissa will spend many days in the Caribbean, but when it emerges later next week and starts tracking north, its timing may coincide with a nor'easter in the eastern United States, resulting in stormy conditions as far north as New England. The combination will lead to a new round of rough surf and erosion along the Atlantic beaches from the last days of October to the start of November.
The timing and strength of a dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. next week will help determine the path that Melissa takes through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic.
"At this time, the odds of direct rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the U.S. East Coast are very low," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "However, there are scenarios that could bring Melissa closer to South Florida and at the very least, some indirect impacts from Melissa are anticipated, not only in South Florida but well to the north along the Atlantic coast."
Beyond eastern Cuba, the window for Melissa's track will range from the east to the north-northeast. Melissa would have to track close to the coast of Central America next week before making its northward turn to be able to cross directly over South Florida.
The more likely scenario is for Melissa to swivel across the southeastern or central Bahamas with torrential rain and high winds and then into the western Atlantic, but well offshore of the United States. Interests in Bermuda should monitor Melissa for direct impacts. Late next week to the first couple of days of November, there is a moderate risk that Melissa could turn westward toward Atlantic Canada.
Offshore seas will be extremely rough and could pose dangers to fishing boats and could lead to damage to large freighters and cruise ships.
Regardless of how close the storm gets to the U.S., rough surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding issues are anticipated along much of the East coast next week.
"Melissa will be a powerful storm generating huge waves north of Cuba. The impacts will be felt at U.S. beaches hundreds of miles away as the storm moves over the western Atlantic," DaSilva said. "This has been a challenging year for beach erosion along the East coast."
"Melissa could wash away tons of sand from beaches already hit hard by tropical storms and hurricanes that passed well offshore earlier this year and from the unnamed tropical storm in early October," DaSilva added.
Around the same time that Melissa begins to move over the southwest Atlantic, a large dip in the jet stream will develop in the eastern half of the U.S.
The jet stream dip can generate a new storm, or perhaps a potent nor'easter, along the Atlantic coast toward the end of October. But even a less-intense coastal storm, when combined with Melissa offshore, will stir up additional winds and rough seas.
In a couple of worst-case scenarios, the jet stream dip could capture Melissa and pull it in close to the northeastern U.S. coast, or a swath of heavy rain could extend back to the Eastern states as Melissa's moisture becomes tapped.
During and in the wake of storm duo, a colder weather pattern will set up in the Eastern states.
It is likely to be even colder than the chilly air that visited this week with frequent showers and cold blusters from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. The cold blast could generate the season's first accumulating snow, or snow showers over the Appalachians.
Temperatures will trend to 8-15 degrees Fahrenheit below average by early November, which could result in conditions more typical of early December in some cases.
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