AccuWeather forecasters warn emerging tropical system warrants a close watch in Atlantic
Beyond Lee, AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring another threat moving over the Atlantic Ocean. There are early indications that the system could threaten the U.S. during the latter half of September.
AccuWeather hurricane experts are closely monitoring a zone of disorganized showers and thunderstorms between the west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands, saying that a feature can emerge into late week that will be the next tropical threat to watch in the Atlantic basin following Hurricane Lee and Margot.
The tropical wave, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), will slowly shift westward through the end of the week. It is on track to become much more organized by the end of the week and this weekend, as it becomes a robust zone of low pressure.
"The tropical wave located well off the west coast of Africa is expected to become the next named system in the Atlantic later this week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
“The next system is one to watch as a potential threat to the East Coast of the United States given how strong the Bermuda High pressure area will be as it builds westward across the Atlantic. With that, and the upper-level wind pattern factored in, we could see this storm coming toward the United States,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
As this tropical feature tracks westward in the coming days, it will move through a zone of warm ocean waters, similar to the environment that Lee passed through.
"At this point, early indications highlight the potential for this tropical wave to follow along a similar path as Hurricane Lee as it remains in the open Atlantic," Buckingham stated.
However, meteorologists say that Hurricane Lee's pass over the western Atlantic and areas north of the Caribbean Sea may have left conditions slightly less favorable for development due to a factor known as upwelling, which is a process where strong winds at the ocean's surface push water away and influence water temperatures. Cooler water rises from beneath the surface to fill the water that was displaced and can cause sea surface temperatures to trend lower.
As Lee rapidly intensified from a Category 1 hurricane with 80-mph sustained winds last Thursday to a 165-mph Category 5 hurricane on Friday, it efficiently churned up the warm ocean waters along its path and left a slightly cooler trail in its wake.
AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite view of Invest 97L over the eastern Atlantic waters mid-morning local time, Thu., Sept 14.
Given how abnormally warm the tropical Atlantic waters were prior to Lee's passage, the slight cooling trend along Lee's path may not be enough to inhibit any development for this next tropical feature organizing across the western and central Atlantic.
At this point in time, a trackable feature is expected in the Atlantic from Sept. 15 through at least Sept. 23. The next name on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season list is Nigel.
The latest forecasts indicate a general westward and then northwestward track across the open waters of the central Atlantic. At this time, it is unlikely that the system, perhaps with the name Nigel, will take on a westward or southwestward movement into the Caribbean Sea based on the overall steering pattern across the western Atlantic.
As the forecast continues to be ironed out throughout the upcoming week, AccuWeather forecasters note that while Hurricane Lee has transformed into the most noteworthy Atlantic storm for the first half of September, there are early indications that this tropical wave is likely to develop into the prominent Atlantic storm for the second half of the month.
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