AccuWeather forecasters monitoring for tropical development near Southeast US coast
Regardless of whether a tropical or subtropical system forms, AccuWeather meteorologists say a stormy Memorial Day weekend is in the cards for parts of the Southeast.
A storm off the southeastern U.S. coast will bring wet weather to parts of the eastern U.S. through the holiday weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic Ocean along the East Coast from northern Florida to North Carolina for potential tropical development. Whether an organized tropical storm takes shape or not, stormy conditions will lead to drenching rain, strong winds, coastal flooding and dangerous surf through much of the Memorial Day weekend.
Stormy weather already targeted the Southeast early this week, but a break of dry weather that began at midweek will not last long ahead of the development of a coastal storm.
"A broad area of low pressure began to form just to the northeast of Florida on Wednesday morning," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. Atmospheric pressure in the region continued to fall on Thursday as evidenced by the vast uptick in rain and thunderstorm activity over the western Atlantic.
The bright colors in this image indicate an eruption of thunderstorms in waters north of the Bahamas on Friday, May 26, 2023. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
That low-pressure area could lay the foundation for tropical development, but it would have a long way to go before reaching tropical storm status. Maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater would need to be measured along with the formation of a well-defined low-pressure center.
Recently, the formation of the low-pressure area has kept most of the rain and thunderstorms focused on parts of the Florida Peninsula and just offshore of Georgia and the Carolinas. This will remain the case through the first half of the day Friday.
Water temperatures will continue to remain favorable for tropical development — in the low 80s F — where the low will sit over the Gulf Stream.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been outlining an area with some risk of tropical development since last week along the southeast coast of the United States and have highlighted the potential for preseason and early-season development in the same zone since the release of the company's 2023 hurricane forecast in late March.
One question that forecasters are weighing is whether the system will spend enough time sitting over the warm water to develop before drifting inland over the Southeast during the extended holiday weekend.
"It sometimes takes two to three days for a complex of thunderstorms to develop into a tropical system," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Should the system spiral inland quickly, which is the most likely scenario, tropical development would not occur. If the center stays offshore for more than a couple of days, then there will be a better chance of it evolving into a tropical depression or storm.
A key player may end up being the position of a storm near the jet stream level of the atmosphere, Rayno said.
"If that jet stream storm stays well inland, it will work against tropical development as any surface storm will tend to move inland quickly," Rayno explained. "Should the jet stream storm set up along or just off the coast, then the surface storm may stay over water long enough to become tropical in nature."
Whether it is named or not, AccuWeather forecasters say that the system will develop a circulation, causing increasing winds and a more concentrated area of rain and thunderstorms. The worst conditions will occur in the zone where the circulation spirals ashore, which is expected in the swath from Georgia to the Carolinas. Some of the thunderstorms that unfold may pack strong wind gusts and even spin up a waterspout near the coastal waters.
The first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be called Arlene.
Because of the duration of winds pushing water toward the land in a part of the region, coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely along with frequent and strong rip currents — especially from far southern New Jersey to northeast Florida. The worst coastal flooding will be at times of high tide. However, tides, in general, will be 1-2 feet above the astronomical average but may be locally higher.
"The period from Friday night to Saturday evening may be the worst period of the holiday weekend due to the storm along the Carolina and Georgia coasts," AccuWeather On-Air Meteorologist Kristina Shalhoup said. This is when it appears the center of the storm's circulation will begin to move slowly inland.
Gusts ranging from 30-50 mph will buffet the eastern parts of the Carolinas with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust near 60 mph possible along the beaches. Sporadic power outages are possible.
As the center moves along from Saturday to Sunday, AccuWeather meteorologists expect rainstorm conditions to move inland over parts of the Carolinas, Georgia and southern Virginia. Temperatures may be no better than the 60s F where it rains much of the day.
A general soaking of 1–4 inches of rain will fall on the Carolinas. Cities such as Greensboro, Charlotte, and Charleston will be in the region that is expected to see the heaviest rain, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 8 inches not out of the question.
Spectators at Charlotte Motor Speedway should be prepared for rain on Sunday, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
“The scheduled 600-mile Sunday night race may experience rain delays, shortening and possible postponement. However, showers might still lead to delays on Memorial Day if the race is pushed back,” Pydynowski said.
Dry weather, sunshine to hold farther north
A dome of dry air over the Northeast will be a determining factor in the northward extent of rain later Sunday and on Memorial Day.
It is likely the northward advance of the rain is halted in Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey or far southern Pennsylvania this weekend. Still, cool breezes and water temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the mid-60s F may make for less-than-ideal beach conditions as far north as Long Island, New York. Surf conditions may be rough at times with strong rip currents possible.
If the storm does not stall in the Southeast, then the weather will improve over much of Florida and southern Georgia by Memorial Day. Surf conditions will likely ease as well.
Caribbean to Bahamas is an area of Tropics to watch in June
June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season and there may be a broad area of interest during early June from the Caribbean to the Bahamas.
A dip in the jet stream will linger off the southeast coast of the U.S. with a plume of downpours and thunderstorms on its eastern flank. It is in this area where some tropical activity could develop in the long range.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
