2026 Atlantic hurricane season is here, but when will the first storm form?
Tropical development is expected to remain limited as the Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, but forecasters say a shift in atmospheric conditions could raise the chances for activity next week.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Alex DaSilva breaks down AccuWeather’s hurricane season forecast, and the areas most at risk for direct impacts in the United States.
June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and conditions could begin to shift next week, opening the door for the first storm of 2026 to take shape.
Wind shear
"Overall, disruptive winds (wind shear) will be the greatest deterrent for tropical development in the Gulf, Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Moisture and ocean temperatures
While moisture levels are sufficient across parts of the region, there are currently no organized areas of low pressure.
This wide conglomerate image, captured on Tuesday, June 2, 2026, shows the tropical Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. Currently, there are no organized areas of thunderstorms, but that may change in the coming days in the western portion of the zone. Dry air and dust are keeping thunderstorm activity at bay over the central and eastern Atlantic. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Sea-surface temperatures are above the critical tropical-development threshold of 80 degrees Fahrenheit, but no disturbances are present to take advantage of the warm waters.
Fronts
"Fronts will drop into and stall across the region over the next couple of weeks," DaSilva said. "Occasionally, weak areas of low pressure can develop along these boundaries and gradually evolve into tropical systems. That's what we'll be watching most closely with this setup."
Trouble spots
"We'll be monitoring an area of low pressure that develops along a front off the East Coast later this week," DaSilva said. "For now, it appears the system will remain entirely or predominantly non-tropical."
Even if it remains non-tropical, the offshore system could generate rough surf and elevated seas along parts of the Atlantic coast, aided by strong high pressure to the north.
Another area of low pressure may form near the Bahamas next week.
"There is some indication that an area of low pressure may try to form over the southwestern Gulf later next week," DaSilva said.
The southwestern Gulf is a climatological hot spot for tropical activity early in the hurricane season.
Tropical waves
During the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, tropical waves—clusters of showers and thunderstorms—move westward from Africa across the tropical Atlantic.
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Historically, roughly 20% to 33% of tropical waves develop into named storms. However, during this time of year, dry air, dust, wind shear and cool water tend to suppress tropical waves.
El Niño
El Niño, characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific, is forecast to strengthen to moderate or strong intensity later this summer and autumn.
During El Niño years, tropical activity in the Atlantic tends to be suppressed, while it tends to flourish in the eastern (and central) Pacific.
The 2026 numbers
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 11-16 named storms and four to seven hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin, including the Caribbean and Gulf.
Eastern Pacific
Meanwhile, activity is already kicking up in the eastern Pacific, where AccuWeather meteorologists expect Boris to follow Amanda in several days. Amanda will remain at sea, but the next tropical storm could threaten Mexico as a major hurricane.
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