El Niño is coming for California's beachfront homes and highways
From Malibu to Carlsbad, waves have stripped beaches and damaged seawalls. Higher water levels and winter storms could put those communities at greater risk.
Coastal erosion and powerful waves have forced residents from a Malibu neighborhood after a massive sinkhole opened outside a mansion owned by Nicolas Cage.
Waves have stripped sand from Southern California beaches, damaged seawalls and forced evacuations. An intensifying El Niño could bring more trouble this winter.
Carlsbad has declared a local emergency to protect a coastal road threatened by erosion, becoming the latest Southern California community to confront damaged shorelines as a potentially powerful El Niño raises concerns about the coming winter.
(Image credit: City of Carlsbad)
The city’s Sept. 9 declaration will accelerate bluff stabilization along South Carlsbad Boulevard, where inspectors found pavement cracks in June. Engineers recommended extending a protective rock barrier about 192 feet.
Similar erosion problems are emerging up and down the Southern California coast.
In Malibu, large swells from former Hurricane Marie contributed to a sinkhole outside a home owned by actor Nicolas Cage. Seven properties were declared unsafe, while 24 others lost safe vehicle access after the collapse damaged the roadway.
This aerial view shows a sinkhole on a street and driveway of a seaside home affected by large swells produced by Hurricane Marie in Malibu, California, on Sept. 8, 2026. Hurricane Marie stayed well offshore of Southern California during Labor Day weekend but its large swells produced dangerous surf and rip currents, with waves reaching around 10 feet in some areas. (Photo by David Swanson / AFP via Getty Images)
In Laguna Beach, waves stripped sand, damaged part of the Aliso Beach parking lot and compromised seawalls protecting six oceanfront homes, which were yellow-tagged, according to city officials.
The erosion did not begin with Marie. Earlier summer swells exposed pipes, wires and other decades-old infrastructure at Newport Beach’s The Wedge, which is known for its intense surf and big waves, ABC7 Los Angeles reported.
"There's all these fresh new pipes sticking out and all these wires sticking out, so it must be the worst it's ever been," photographer Brent Weldon told ABC7.
Spectators gather at The Wedge, during a powerful south swell impacting the Southern California coastline on June 9, 2026, in Newport Beach, CA. Wave heights reportedly peaked at 20 feet. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
What happens when the sand disappears?
“Beaches are our primary natural defense to backshore erosion and coastal flooding,” Adam Young, a coastal geomorphologist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told AccuWeather.
When sand disappears, the beach becomes less effective at absorbing wave energy and protecting the coast, Young explained. Some beach recovery is still possible before winter, but that will depend on upcoming ocean conditions.
“If wave energy decreases, there is a possibility of some recovery,” Young said. “Narrow beaches at the start of the winter will be relatively vulnerable to backshore erosion and flooding.”
Long-term sea-level rise caused by climate change can amplify the impacts of temporary ocean fluctuations, according to NASA. Young said elevated water levels during El Niño provide a glimpse of how future sea-level rise could affect California's coastline.
Waves wash up near damaged beachfront homes on Sept. 14, 2026, in Dana Point, California. Heavy surf generated by offshore Hurricane Marie over Labor Day weekend, amid a record-breaking ocean heatwave and an emerging El Niño, left approximately ten properties in the area to be deemed uninhabitable and prompted Dana Point to declare a local emergency over coastal erosion. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
El Niño's coastal 'triple threat'
El Niño can create a “triple threat” for California, Young said: increased rainfall that triggers landslides and powerful waves that erode beaches and bluffs, as well as higher coastal water levels.
Strong El Niño conditions can raise sea levels along California by roughly 6 to 13 inches, he said. The timing matters: Large waves arriving during very high tides increase the potential for flooding and damage.
A Kelvin wave, a broad pulse of warmer water moving through the Pacific Ocean, is forecast to reach California in late September and could temporarily raise coastal water levels, potentially worsening erosion and flooding.
Sea level height data from the international Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite collected from March to May 2026. (Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech)
AccuWeather forecasters said in an August El Niño outlook that Super El Niño conditions will likely develop during the second half of the Atlantic hurricane season, becoming one of the strongest on record. However, Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok emphasized that the exact ranking matters less than the impacts, noting that conditions would be significant whether the event reaches record strength or simply ranks among the strongest on record. Pastelok also cautioned that unusually warm waters elsewhere in the Pacific could influence winter storm tracks and affect how El Niño's impacts ultimately unfold.
“We are seeing a strong impact in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, with extreme wind shear limiting Atlantic storm development, while the Pacific remains quite active as we expected back in the spring,” Pastelok said.
For California's coastline, however, the biggest concern is not the ranking of the El Niño event but how storms interact with already-eroded beaches and elevated water levels.
Every El Niño is different, Young said, but repeated storms can compound coastal damage before beaches have time to recover.
“The first storm may strip all the sand off a beach, and without the natural sand buffer, the next storm can deliver a stronger punch.”
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