AccuWeather issues first risk of tropical development in the Atlantic basin this year
The first tropical storm of the year could develop later in May, ahead of the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sunday, June 1.
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As the 2025 hurricane season approaches, AccuWeather's hurricane experts are alerting businesses and emergency officials across the Gulf Coast and eastern United States to the potential for early tropical development in the Caribbean starting later next week. This advisory comes as part of AccuWeather’s efforts to ensure businesses are best prepared for the approaching Atlantic hurricane season.
Low Risk of Preseason Tropical Development
AccuWeather experts have identified a low risk for preseason tropical development in the Caribbean and the Pacific off the coast of Central America from May 15-22. A large, slow-spinning area in the atmosphere, known as a gyre, could develop around Central America, overlapping with parts of the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean. This gyre can sometimes lay the groundwork for the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm.
"We're starting to get into that time of year where we need to keep an eye on the Caribbean," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "At the very least, a wetter pattern down across Central America and then up into the Western Caribbean is expected.”
As of Sunday, May 11, the risk for tropical development on the Atlantic portion of the gyre was diminishing. However, the risk continued for the eastern Pacific portion of the gyre and that risk may increase in the week ahead.
Businesses should be aware that tropical downpours could cause localized flooding across Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and other islands in the western Caribbean. Some downpours could also reach South Florida.
What is a Gyre?
A gyre refers to a large, weak area of low pressure and cyclonic, or counterclockwise, circulation that can form over Central America. It's essentially a broad, slow-spinning area of weather, often associated with the development of tropical systems. While the Central American gyre itself doesn't typically become a hurricane, it can provide the conditions for disturbances to develop into tropical depressions, storms, and even hurricanes.
Whether or not a gyre takes shape over Central America in mid-May could hinge on the jet stream. "Essentially, what's happening is we're going to be getting a dip in the jet stream to come down into the southeastern United States during the middle of May," DaSilva explained. The question is whether the dip in the jet stream is strong enough and reaches far enough south to initialize the gyre and get it spinning.
DaSilva noted that disruptive winds, known as wind shear, or winds changing direction or speed at increasing heights in the atmosphere, could also be lower through much of May, which is another reason why AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring the region for potential tropical development.
A gyre helped with the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto last June, which made landfall along Mexico's Gulf coast shortly after the middle of the month. A gyre also developed near the western Caribbean in June of 2023, although it did not lead to a named tropical storm formation.
READ MORE >> AccuWeather's Exclusive 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast
Preparing for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
DaSilva is urging businesses, government leaders, and emergency officials in areas prone to tropical storms and hurricane impacts to continue preparing now for the fast-approaching hurricane season, which could bring impacts before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
“Oftentimes, you don’t have the luxury of watching preseason or early-season storms trek across the open Atlantic for days before approaching the U.S. With a setup like this, a tropical system could quickly develop and be at your doorstep in a matter of two or three days,” DaSilva said.
The Importance of Your Business Being Better Prepared This Hurricane Season
Named storms that receive a rating on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale typically receive the most attention, but DaSilva warns that unnamed and slower-moving storms can create a higher risk to lives and property compared to some named tropical storms or even Category 1 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
“Preseason and early-season storms often move quite slowly and can produce tremendous amounts of flooding rainfall. Never let your guard down if your area is at risk of tropical impacts from an unnamed storm,” DaSilva warned. “Last year is a reminder of the dangerous and destructive impacts that are possible from unnamed storms. A tropical rainstorm hit the Carolinas last summer. That storm was never named, but it produced enough rainfall to cause substantial damage and led to dangerous swift water rescues. AccuWeather estimates that unnamed storm caused $7 billion in total damage and economic loss.”
Although destructive wind speeds typically receive the most attention during tropical storms and hurricanes, DaSilva says water is the deadliest threat during hurricane season. “Water is the biggest killer during hurricane season, not the wind. Storm surge, coastal flooding, and inland flooding tragically claimed more than 100 lives across the country last hurricane season,” DaSilva said.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a powerful tool for keeping families, businesses, government leaders, and emergency officials better informed and prepared this hurricane season.
In contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is based on a broad range of important factors. In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm on lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed but also flooding rain, storm surge, and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic loss than wind.
AccuWeather’s Hurricane Warning Service
AccuWeather’s extraordinary hurricane service is available to your business and community. Do not go through another hurricane season without the added protection that the AccuWeather Hurricane Warning Service can provide.
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AccuWeather’s Hurricane Warning Service provides detailed insights on various hurricane-related threats, including storm surge, flooding rains, wind damage, and tornado development. These insights are crucial for organizations to make the best informed decisions that enhance safety and reduce risk.
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This proactive approach helps businesses and communities prepare for potential impacts, respond effectively during the storm, and recover swiftly in the aftermath.
By staying connected with AccuWeather’s continuous updates and expert advice, users can navigate the hurricane season with confidence and minimize the devastating effects of these powerful storms.
Stay Better Informed and the Best Prepared
As the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season approaches, it is crucial to stay better informed and the best prepared. AccuWeather provides the most accurate forecasts and warnings, with often more advance notice enable you to make the best decisions for your business and your employees.
Contact AccuWeather today to learn more about how AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service can help your business better prepare for hurricanes and tropical threats.
Watch AccuWeather's 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast Webinar Below
AccuWeather’s Hurricane Experts predict that extreme sea-surface temperatures could lead to another above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025. With the potential for rapid intensification and a heightened risk of major hurricanes, businesses should start preparing now.
