Joe Bastardi's Europe Column
POSTED: 12:26 a.m. November 22, 2009

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The thoughts expressed in this column represent Joe Bastardi's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating AccuWeather forecasts, the opinions of many other AccuWeather meteorologists are also considered.

This discussion is updated only the on the days that Joe is available. Joe usually updates this discussion at least weekly. Check the date above and come back often!

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SUNDAY OFFERING



THE WIND, THE RAIN... A SIGN OF THE TROUGH OVER EUROPE FOR THE WINTER!

In 2000, the US had what you are having in Europe now, but with the continent to the west not the ocean, still in its warm amo, we had several major windstorms and then the coldest US December since the 80s. The storminess you are having is because the jet is intensifying over what is still warmer than normal water ( we have several years before the AMO is cold in the fashion it was in 80s) But rest assured it is showing you where this trough wants to be for the winter.. over Europe.

The CFS from the US is dramatic this morning as it shows a winter with plenty of blocking and a suppressed jet, with the mean trough centered right over where we have it for the winter. Again the closest parallel in recent years is probably 02-03.

Think of it this way. If you have x amount of energy now it can only support the jet as far south as it is now. But what happens, given all the physical drivers staying the same across the globe, when the jet intensifies for the winter. It sinks south! This opens up the blocking that can develop further north and forms the basis for why modeling is seeing what it is seeing for Europe this winter. I am very encourage that my idea for the winter is a good one. Look at this link:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images/euT2mMon.gif

It is now the US model showing exactly what we have said for the past couple of months, that the winter may start a bit late, but really crank. Look at that cold in February!

Again in the west its a battle. but with some blocking, trying to shove atlantic air masses into a cold continent can make for plenty of snow whether England tips normal or one way of the other ( Ireland too) however for europe as whole, I like my idea ( its the same there and remember we said its the battle of Britain and France..



Notes and asides. I am sure many of you have heard about the break in to the Hadley CRU center. Its an ironic thing to note the cries of criminal behavior, when hacking into this, that are coming up by people who seem to be, in scientific way, less than forthright in their actions, which are exposed by the "criminal" behavior ( whistle blowing?) One of the names most bantered around of is Dr. Mann, who sits several miles away from me at Penn State, and in spite of my disagreements have always had high regard for, much to the chagrin of some people in this debate. Just like I can be wrong in the weather, I may be wrong there too. There is a line in the PSU alma mater," may no act of ours bring shame" I am a graduate of Penn State so I am bound by that. Dr. Mann is a faculty member and not a PSU grad. I guess he gets an exemption, though judging by his comments on the matter, he sees nothing wrong with what he has been doing, along with his colleagues in this situation. I will leave it up to you, the reader, if you get to see these things ( I believe this is an inside job by someone who felt he had to blow the whistle and expose what many have suspected, this is not on the up and up) _ I will leave it to you as the judge as to whether the old adage "Those who have no shame, can feel none" applies.

In the end, and I will say it time and time again... we will get our answer in the next 30 years without having to use science as a weapon in agenda driven politics. I will be clear on my view, with the oceanic cycles changing and the sunspot cycles the way we are, if we get the drop we should ( roughly 1-1.5 fahrenheit worldwide, as measured by satellites, not where people can fudge data) then we know that co2 is not a problem. If we dont, then it MIGHT be a problem down the road , but that is even shaky since plants love co2 and would green the planet more, and emit more oxygen, which is something to look for in cooling the planet. As for the energy situation, free markets and incentives, though imperfect, have always proved a way to get people to work harder. Forced markets and trying to limit the more ambitious among us are a form of enslavement. Lets be clear here It was our Abraham Lincoln who said, you can not make a weak man strong by making a strong man weak. I suspect, when we look back at this years from now, we will see that science was being used as yet another weapon in a world that cant seem to get it through its head that to allow, in the words of the Scottish poet Browning.. " a mans reach to exceed his grasp" one should not force their ideas upon another. I challenge people NOT TO BELIEVE ME, but go do the work and learn for themselves, which means looking at all sides of the issue, and come to their own conclusions

While I cant be sure, and attach no importance to singular events, perhaps the weather this winter and in years beyond will actually provide evidence to people that they should open their minds and not simply follow along like sheep.

have no fear and be of good cheer!

thanks for reading ciao for now









HADLEY CENTER IDEA MAKES LITTLE SENSE FOR WINTER

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/world/seasonal/index.html

Something is wrong here with this forecast. Notice the United States and the Far East are near or below normal. That should raise alarm bells at the Hadley Center that their model has problem. Do they have any idea how rare it is for Europe to be that warm, with all that blocking across the pole, and the Far East and the eastern United States not to be warm?

I suspect their model has a warm bias now built into it. If we look at the CFS from the US, it now LOOKS LIKE OUR FORECAST! In other words, we do have a model coming around to what we have been saying as it has a colder-than-normal winter for Europe, centered over the eastern areas with the winter deepening to a point where February against the normals is coldest!

It is going to be interesting to see how this turns out. The analog package that favors 1969, 1976, 1977 (weighted twice), 2002 and 1963 certainly is not in line with the UKMET model idea. The look of the Atlantic, with the tripole of warm, cold warm in water temps and the rapid cooling of the Mediterranean all argue for whatever early warmth that is occurring to back off. It is interesting to note how the UKMET is seeing the reversal from the warm November over North America but doesn't see it in Europe.

So the line is drawn. I have a great deal of respect for the UKMET people but I am wondering if they are aware that their model idea is a long shot. In other words, if Europe is that warm, it's going to be hard to the other areas forecast colder to be warm, but you wouldn't know that unless you went back and looked at past winters.

So at the least, we have an interesting test coming up. Granted the forecast is for November through January, but the public utterances from them and me are in different camps this winter.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.