UPDATE: 10/23: Our map has been updated as shown below. Additional models are predicting a large East Coast storm next week. I can't guarantee that I'll have time to keep up with it all on this blog, but follow the official AccuWeather.com news story, and my Twitter & Facebook feeds for pointers to great discussions, like this cool model ensembles map and "meteorologist roundup" (in which this blog is quoted) from Capital Weather Gang.
MONDAY AM: The AccuWeather meteorologists (and, indeed, the entire meteorological community on the Internet) are abuzz this morning with the possibility of a large hurricane moving into the mid-Atlantic states, resulting in heavy snow inland. Before you discount the models which are predicting this (in front: The "Euro" model, demonstrably the most accurate), remember that this has happened before, with Hurricane Wilma in 2005 when it (almost) merged into a nor'easter and moved up the East Coast causing 74-mph wind gusts at the Jersey shore and over 20 inches of snow in the mountains. I was just a young blogger then:
- Oct. 23, 2005: The Perfect Storm II?
- Oct. 24, 2005: Superstorm 2005 In Progress
- Oct. 25, 2005: Super or Not, It's Got 28-Foot Waves
- Oct. 26, 2005: Nor'easter / Wilma's Greatest Hits
And as far as a storm (any storm) causing heavy snow in the Northeast, that's becoming less and less unprecedented -- it happened here in Central PA in mid-October 2009 and again last year with "Snowtober" (30 inches of snow & 69-mph wind gusts). A high-elevation snow forecast was issued in mid-October 2010, but it was a swing and a miss. In 2008, the GFS promised us a significant storm 10 days out, but it under-delivered. something similar happened in 2007 and 2006.
So what about this year? The models have been saying some incredible stuff, like a Category 3 (sub-950mb pressure) hurricane making landfall on the New Jersey coast (ECWMF, 00Z). Because of the cold air already in place, this would bring nearly 40 inches of snow to the highest mountain tops in Pennsylvania! The less-accurate model (GFS, 00Z) keeps the storm out to sea, but there's enough cold air in place this week to have snow (at elevation) in New England even if the hurricane skips us and a front passes through, according to the DGEX model (06Z). As Henry points out, some of the NAO index members are forecast to dip low, which is another good sign that the Northeast could be in for snow next week.
In the end, only time will tell. If this does happen (even a mild version of it), this will be three out of four years that we've seen significant snow in October here in Pennsylvania.
Today, I remember the earliest fall snowfall in central Pennsylvania history, which occurred 5 years ago, mid-month.
I don't believe this has ever happened in Hurricane history: Major Hurricane Gonzalo is striking Bermuda tonight, just as soon-to-be-hurricane Ana approaches the Hawaiian islands.
Recapping some of the things I've seen on weather radar over the years... birds, bats, butterflies, locusts, and mayflies.
Just after sunrise in the west Pacific Ocean last night, we were able to look down into the eye of Super Typhoon Vongfong.
An amazing display of asperatus clouds showed up in New York City this morning, but what causes them?
Vortexes of air constantly surround us; for the first time in my life, I've videotaped dust devils near AccuWeather HQ during unusually dry and calm weather.