The precipitation map from the GFS for next Saturday evening looks hauntingly familiar to the one from last week, which did not pan out in a snow event, except for the favored lake-effect areas.
But the key to this one would be colder temperatures, frozen ground in many areas, and most importantly a long duration -- the model shows snow over most of Pennsylvania for more than 60 hours. The only other model which runs in that time frame is the DGEX, which runs from GFS conditions at 84 hours. It is much higher resolution and shows the event as only happening in the higher elevations of the Appalachians Saturday:
It's hard to tell if this is just the difference in resolution talking but it seems that, unlike the GFS, the DGEX never really shows snow outside of the higher mountains.
AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi (PRO) is also hyped, predicting a 28.80" Hg low pressure Saturday in the Gulf of Maine (the equivalent of a Category 2 Hurricane according to Saffir Simpson [Wikipedia]). He also says:
"Heavy to excessive rainfalls from Texas to the mid-Atlantic, with heavy precip that could very well turn to snow from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, strong winds that can gust over 60 mph in the cold part of the storm driving flurries and squalls as far south as we will see them go now, perhaps even further."
I'll be at the Punxsutawney Weather Discovery Center this Saturday from 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. ET, talking about clouds and storm chasing in Pennsylvania.
The Great Lakes ice coverage is more than twice the highest ever for the week, and it's causing problems. Also, the March climate report lists more cold records.
The Appalachian mountains won the temperature war yesterday, with readings as high as 90 degrees. Record high temperatures were broken across the region.
Dangerous Cyclone Ita is already stronger than devastating Cyclone Yasi's peak and the storm looks similar to Yasi on satellite.
Severe weather has taken center stage in the news and Social Media this week, owing to severe thunderstorms in western Europe, Argentina and the Philippines.
Dropcam has now added time-lapse capability to their cloud recording... your weather camera at home can now do full-day time-lapses.