Storm Surge Vs. Landfall: Hurricane Irene Bound for NC

One of the most important things you need to remember if you live on the coast during a hurricane is... storm surge. When the ocean rises and pushes itself in (not even counting waves), there's no defense. This is what wipes out homes on the shore. For example, let's take today's HWRF model which has Hurricane Irene making landfall near Charleston, SC (which most meteorologists now disagree with, but just for illustrative purposes):

For people away from the coast, the point of landfall is not important, because flooding rain, and even wind can appear anywhere around the storm. But for those who are oceanfront, the point of landfall means a lot. To the north of the landfall (because of the counterclockwise circulation around the storm), the highest winds are coming from the ocean, pushing the water in. Major storm surge damage will occur here. But south of the landfall, the winds are coming off the land, pushing the water back. Little damage will be observed here (as far as storm surge goes). Now, yes, as the storm moves the direction of the winds changes, but the most important time is when the highest winds are moving on shore.

Tonight our forecast track (click to Hurricane.AccuWeather.com for more up-to-date graphics) puts Oak Island in the worst possible place -- close to the highest eyewall winds, but on the north side of the track. This would decimate the island like Hurricane Hazel did in 1954. To give you another example of how important this placement can be, consider... in 1989, Hurricane Hugo (white line below) hit 120 miles away and caused much, much more storm surge damage at Oak Island than Hurricanes Fran, Bertha and Floyd (colored lines), all of whom hit within 20 miles of the location during the 1990's.

This, along with extra high winds from the right front quadrant, make being just north of the hurricane's landfall a very dangerous place to be. For Oak Island's sake, I hope that our forecast will change and the trip I took to this tropical paradise last month won't be my last.