At this time, the models are showing two possibly-tropical storms, one bound for the Carolinas and the other for New England. What does this mean for the I-95 corridor? In one of the afternoon updates from AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) mentioned that, regardless of which storm gets named what, both could have a big effect on the East Coast, namely with rain. One possible total rainfall map from the NMM model is shown below (only through Friday, so no effects of the second storm are shown on-shore):
NMM FORECAST PRECIP (ONLY THROUGH FRIDAY!)
He said "The setup for floods in the East now is rivalling June 2006, something accomplished without a named system, but something that was very much tropically produced." I was blogging in 2006, and you can see the incredible rainfall map from that event here. Madness man agrees, saying "someone is going to get a heck of a lot of rain."
A summary of what the two major Forecast Models [JessePedia] are saying from the 12Z runs this morning:
NMM: 998 MB Low hits South Carolina Thursday; 1008 Low off Carolina coast moving north Saturday. Over a foot of rain offshore; 6 inches in parts of coastal North Carolina and New Jersey (see above).
GFS: 1006 Low hits North Carolina coast Friday; 1000 Low hits Nova Scotia, Canada Sunday. Precip amounts over 3 inches stay offshore.
The MB reading, if you didn't know, is pressure, and you can compare that to the Saffir Simpson scale to get an idea on how strong the model thinks the storm will be, but a Category 1 hurricane starts at 989 mb or lower, so all of the above are Tropical Storms at best.
Here's the 12Z Model Spread [JessePedia] showing the opinions of other models:
It's been an interesting weather day here at the beach in Oak Island, N.C.
By the looks of these two maps, it's about time for my annual beach vacation week at Oak Island, N.C.
Multiple waterspouts were reported this morning on the Chesapeake Bay this morning, while a landspout prompted a Tornado Warning yesterday in Iowa.
In 1997, I blogged about Hurricane Linda, a powerful hurricane moving over Socorro Island. Last night, something very similar happened.
The NWS has confirmed three tornadoes in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
This will be one of the most severe days of 2015 in Pennsylvania; the public needs to take this one seriously.