Jesse Ferrell

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Model Update on East Coast Storms, Flood Threat

September 23, 2008; 2:59 PM ET

At this time, the models are showing two possibly-tropical storms, one bound for the Carolinas and the other for New England. What does this mean for the I-95 corridor? In one of the afternoon updates from Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) mentioned that, regardless of which storm gets named what, both could have a big effect on the East Coast, namely with rain. One possible total rainfall map from the NMM model is shown below (only through Friday, so no effects of the second storm are shown on-shore):


He said "The setup for floods in the East now is rivalling June 2006, something accomplished without a named system, but something that was very much tropically produced." I was blogging in 2006, and you can see the incredible rainfall map from that event here. Madness man agrees, saying "someone is going to get a heck of a lot of rain."

A summary of what the two major Forecast Models [JessePedia] are saying from the 12Z runs this morning:

NMM: 998 MB Low hits South Carolina Thursday; 1008 Low off Carolina coast moving north Saturday. Over a foot of rain offshore; 6 inches in parts of coastal North Carolina and New Jersey (see above).

GFS: 1006 Low hits North Carolina coast Friday; 1000 Low hits Nova Scotia, Canada Sunday. Precip amounts over 3 inches stay offshore.

The MB reading, if you didn't know, is pressure, and you can compare that to the Saffir Simpson scale to get an idea on how strong the model thinks the storm will be, but a Category 1 hurricane starts at 989 mb or lower, so all of the above are Tropical Storms at best.

Here's the 12Z Model Spread [JessePedia] showing the opinions of other models:

P.S.: If you want to be scared, look at the "Yikes" GFDL map (I'm talking to you, Hypey McHype). on Henry's Blog (PREMIUM | PRO) .

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or


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Jesse Ferrell
Jesse Ferrell's WeatherMatrix blog covers extreme weather worldwide with a concentration on weather photos and Social Media.