When I first saw this video it was identified by the Pennsylvania Storm Chasers as being from York County, PA (one of the places in which I toured the flooding last week), I figured it was a hoax. Not the video itself, but the fact that it happened during this flood, in this location. People are quick to claim an extreme weather photo or video is from the latest storm, without researching it.

Sadly this one is for real, says the York Daily Record, which has vetted the video and compared it against local geography, saying "The exact location was not identified. But landmarks visible in the video include signs for Les Lane and nearby Spring Valley County Park, which is in southern York County."

I can take it one step further and tell you exactly where it happened: Seaks Run Road (Route 216) at Les Lane. Click on the map below to explore. This precise location is proven by the two signs in a video shot from inside the bus (warning: profanity), one recommending a left turn for the park, and the other being Les Lane on their right, and both shown below.

The bus is traveling in the direction of the red arrow. The York Daily Record also shows photos of road damage less than a foot away from the bus tires at 1:16 into the video from inside. The bus tires could have easily slipped into this damaged area, stalling the bus until flood waters rose enough to move or tip it downstream.

David Thomas, the school's administrative director, was quoted in the YDR article as saying he was surprised the road wasn't closed already. I am not. The Flash Flooding that hit York Thursday was immense and hundreds of creek crossings were affected; there's no way that officials could have reached them all in time.

The executive director of the Pennsylvania School Bus Association saying "maybe they started across the roadway and all of a sudden the water came." That can happen in these situations but it's clear from the videos that wasn't the case here. From the videos, the water was already rushing over the road before the bus attempted to cross.

Should school have been closed, preventing the buses from being on the road? Probably. Private weather companies such as AccuWeather offer such services, and any meteorologist looking at the radar Thursday early morning could have predicted a high chance of flooding.

The USGS doesn't have a gauge in the area, but the Codorus Creek about 10 miles north rose 15 feet last Thursday -- almost 1 foot every 15 minutes around 8:45 am (see graph above).

This obviously shouldn't have happened, and the driver was very lucky that it didn't turn into a massive tragedy. Most people don't know that it takes only 12 inches of water to float a car, and once your floating, things can go downhill quick (literally). And that's *if* the road is still there. With muddy water on top, you don't know for sure - take the photo below from the NWS for example:

And even if the road hasn't crumbled yet, for goodness sakes, a bus full of kids is heavy! It could have easily crushed the road even if cars safely preceded it. Here's what a missing piece of road looks like in practice:

http://www.metacafe.com/fplayer/3072520/driving_after_flood_fail.swf

Driving After Flood Fail - The most popular videos are a click away

But sometimes people just don't stop and think, and I applaud NOAA's "Turn Around Don't Drown" campaign, which aims to install signs like these nationwide:

Maybe had the bus driver seen one of those, he wouldn't have plowed through. By the way, the article stops short of saying he was fired but he "won't be transporting students any more."

DISCLAIMER: These thoughts may not represent the opinions of AccuWeather, Inc.

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